Ethiopia

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Ethiopia
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Key Message Update
September 2023
Poor kiremt rainfall, amid conflict, drives poor meher production prospects
  • The 2023 belg harvest and associated increases in agricultural labor availability and livestock prices have resulted in increased food and income access in some areas of the country, reducing the number of people in need of food assistance. Nevertheless, millions of people are still awaiting the meher harvest, facing continued severe levels of acute food insecurity. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in most northern, southern, and southeastern areas. While food and income are expected to increase from October to January, there is a credible risk of more extreme levels of acute food insecurity in the pastoral south/southeast and Tigray if this does not materialize to the extent currently anticipated, particularly amid an uncertain timeline for the end of the United States government’s pause on funding for food assistance deliveries.
  • In September, near-normal levels of rainfall moderated the magnitude of June to September kiremt rainfall deficits, mitigating some of the poor cropping conditions observed in August. Notably, in areas of West Arsi and East Shewa zones, rainfall resumed after a long dry spell. The green harvest has started for maize, especially in the northern areas of Amhara and Tigray, while other crops have reached or are approaching maturity. However, cropping conditions remain poor in some areas, and drought conditions persist in many areas that rely on the June to September rains. In Oromia, the shortage of rainfall, coupled with an outbreak of pests and disease, has negatively impacted crop conditions, driving further reductions in harvest expectations.
  • In the Amhara region, levels of conflict between Fano fighters and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) have intensified after large-scale clashes began in early August. A significant increase in ENDF airstrikes and shelling occurred in September, with most attacks conducted in the East and West Gojjam zones against Fano contingents. While the government claims that the situation has returned to normal, ambushes and intense fighting are still ongoing in different parts of the region. Clashes are likely to continue, causing frequent blockages of roads and disrupting the movement of goods and people. In several parts of Amhara, the clashes have already disrupted the movement of both people and commodities and resulted in price increases. However, it is important to note that there have not been any reports of prolonged disruptions in transportation, except on roads such as Addis-Bahir Dar, which frequently experiences disruptions.
  • In northern conflict-affected areas, IDPs, returnees, and poor households with difficulty accessing typical food and income sources and poor households have very low purchasing power due to very high staple food prices along with low incomes. Many preferred staple foods such as teff, sorghum, and wheat have become unaffordable, and households in conflict-affected areas of the north have shifted to maize, a less preferred substitute, driving increased market demand and sharp increases in maize prices. In many markets in Amhara and Tigray, maize prices increased 25 to 35 percent between April and August 2023. Based on FEWS NET price monitoring data, in Sekota market in Amhara region, the price of white sorghum in August 2023 was 66 percent higher than last year and 93 percent higher than the three-year average. 
  • Since the pause of humanitarian assistance, the provision of food aid has been constrained. In August, the government provided support to approximately one million people across all nine regions. In the Tigray Region, efforts continue to pilot Vulnerability Based Targeting food distributions, but progress is slow. Since the pilot was launched in late July, WFP has distributed food to approximately 730,000 people residing in the Northwestern and Southern zones. Additionally, WFP is slated to begin rolling out food distributions to nearly 900,000 refugees in Ethiopia, including new arrivals from Sudan, in October following a series of reforms to ensure assistance reaches those most in need.
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Latest Analysis Latest Analysis
View All Ethiopia Analysis
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Update Food security emergency persists across Ethiopia in aftermath of severe shocks Ethiopia August 2023
Key Message Update Rainfall deficits drive crop production concerns in the center, north, and south Ethiopia July 2023
Food Security Outlook Lasting, severe impacts of conflict and drought leave millions struggling to cope Ethiopia June 2023 - January 2024
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook East Africa November 29, 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Ethiopia Price Bulletin Ethiopia October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Update Food security emergency persists across Ethiopia in aftermath of severe shocks Ethiopia August 2023
Key Message Update Rainfall deficits drive crop production concerns in the center, north, and south Ethiopia July 2023
Food Security Outlook Lasting, severe impacts of conflict and drought leave millions struggling to cope Ethiopia June 2023 - January 2024
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Supply and Market Outlook East Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook East Africa November 29, 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa October 2023
Price Bulletin Ethiopia Price Bulletin Ethiopia October 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Food Security Classification Data View all Ethiopia classification data
Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (September 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile September 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification September 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (August 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (August 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile August 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification August 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: August 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2020 - September 2020)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2020) and medium term (June 2020 - September 2020) periods.

Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2020 (.zip) (ZIP) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2020 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2020 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2020 - September 2020 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2020 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2020 - September 2020 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Ethiopia Seasonal Calendar
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Wheat, Season 2 Maize, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 1 Teff, Season 1 Wheat, Season 1
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remote sensing imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Ethiopia Rural Baseline SNNPR, November 2009 Ethiopia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month, November 2009 Ethiopia Livelihoods Zones Map
Ethiopia 2018 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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