Ethiopia

• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to emerge in February in lowland areas of East Hararghe Zone due to complete production losses or near crop failure in those areas. Poor local production, compounded by elevated transportation costs, is driving increases in food prices and worsening food consumption deficits for poor households that are now fully market dependent. To access food, poor households are relying on increasingly severe livelihood coping strategies, including extreme depletion of livelihood assets, to generate cash, all while still facing large consumption deficits.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across southern and southeastern Ethiopia, with a growing proportion of households likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) amid historic drought conditions. The deyr/hageya rains ended at significantly below‑average levels, resulting in extremely dry conditions in areas of Dawa, Liben, and Afder zones of Somali Region; Borena and East Borena zones of Oromia; and South Omo Zone of South Ethiopia Region. As the region enters the January-February jilaal dry season, water points are already near depletion following what is typically the second wettest period of the year. As dry conditions intensify, livestock body conditions continue to deteriorate, further limiting access to food and income. Consequently, households are increasingly expected to adopt severe, atypical livelihood coping strategies.
• Initial forecasts suggest average March-May gu/genna rains across south and southeastern pastoral areas; however, international forecast models indicate high uncertainty in the forecast, with equal likelihood of below-average, normal, or above-average rainfall. If the gu/genna rains are significantly below average or fail, then Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes could emerge in southern and southeastern areas, and the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse would likely increase.
• According to the Food Cluster, 1.1 million people received humanitarian food assistance in November, concentrated in Oromia, Tigray and Amhara. Distribution reports from the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) and WFP were unavailable at the time of this report, and the number of people reached with food assistance is likely higher.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2025 Food Security Outlook and November Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 31, 2025.