Ethiopia

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Key Message Update January 2026 Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely as food access declines in lowland East Hararghe Download the report
  • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to emerge in February in the lowland areas of East Hararghe. Food stocks from the 2025 meher harvest are critically low across both East and West Hararghe due to widespread crop failures following intermittent and inadequate kiremt rains during key stages of crop development. The lowlands experienced complete crop failure, and households have been dependent on market purchases since November. Midland and highland households have now depleted their limited reserves, resulting in an early reliance on markets for food amid atypically high staple food prices. As a result, an increasing number of people from lowland woredas are migrating to nearby towns – including Harar, Dire Dawa, Haromaya, Jijiga, and Aweday – in search of income to purchase food. By February, households are expected to face large food consumption deficits due to extreme constraints on financial access to food, despite an anticipated increase in labor migration.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread in the pastoral south and southeast, with a proportion of households likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4), especially in areas most severely impacted by drought, such as Afder, Dawa, and Liben zones. Poor performance of both the March-May 2025 gu/genna and October-December 2025 deyer/hageya rainy seasons has resulted in atypically severe shortages of pasture and water, especially in Afder, Dawa, and Liben zones. Although preliminary forecasts suggest the March-May gu/genna rains may be average, forecast confidence remains low. Ensemble climate models indicate comparable probabilities for below-average, average, and above-average rainfall. If gu/genna rainfall is below average, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would likely emerge between March and May in areas that would then be facing a third or fourth consecutive poor season, particularly as livelihood recovery has been limited since the historic 2020-2023 drought.
  • In the north, food access remains limited as persistent conflict escalations continue to constrain access to income-generating opportunities, despite the meher harvest moderating food consumption deficits. Reports of a shift from sporadic skirmishes to more sustained, higher-intensity conflict in Tigray and Amhara in late January underscore the fluid and ongoing nature of the conflict and its continued impact on food access. In response, banks are limiting withdrawals, and households that have the financial capacity are beginning to hoard food. Currently, some households in Tigray – especially internally displaced persons (IDPs) in camp settings – are facing more severe constraints on food access, likely resulting in household-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at minimum. More widespread deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected along Tigray’s borders between February and May.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, at minimum, are likely emerging among refugees residing in camps in Gambela. WFP has been providing food assistance to more than three-quarters of the 1.0 million refugees residing in Ethiopia. However, funding shortfalls have led to WFP reducing rations for refugees, though new arrivals still receive a full ration. In Gambela, refugees are largely reliant on humanitarian assistance to meet their basic food needs, and the impact of the WFP assistance cuts has been compounded by ongoing ethnic tensions that contributed to a recent uptick in violence in late December, both within and around the camps. At the same time, continued arrivals of new refugees from South Sudan and Sudan are increasing humanitarian caseloads, though funding for humanitarian assistance remains constrained.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across much of the rest of the country. Households are consuming food from the meher harvest; however, in areas with below‑average meher production, households are exhausting their food stocks atypically early, resulting in increased market reliance amid below-average purchasing power. In some areas of South Ethiopia (particularly Konso Zone), it is estimated that over 30 percent of the meher harvest was lost due to poor 2025 kiremt rainfall. The continued impacts of the below-average harvest are compounded by ongoing recovery from flooding and landslides in August 2025 in some areas of South Ethiopia and Sidama. Consequently, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely, particularly from February to May when household stocks are seasonally low and market dependence peaks.
  • Staple food prices in December 2025 remained stable compared to the preceding month and last year, following improvements in market supply with the harvest. However, prices remain significantly higher than the five-year average. Sorghum prices in Sekota declined by 8 percent in December 2025, compared to the preceding month, according to REACH. Since the launch of the new economic reform in July 2024, currency depreciation has reached 60.5 percent, according to the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. This depreciation is steadily increasing the cost of imported food items, further weakening household purchasing power.
  • According to the Food Cluster, around 1.6 million people received food assistance in December, excluding the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission’s distributions (a 7 percent increase compared to November, when roughly 1.5 million people received food assistance). Assistance deliveries remain concentrated in the Tigray, Somali, Oromia, and Amhara regions. Fuel shortages in Tigray and security constraints in Amhara and Oromia continue to impede the timely dispatch of humanitarian assistance. Due to resource constraints, partners continue to provide reduced rations in rural areas.
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Food Security Classification data View all Ethiopia Food Security Classification data
Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2025 (.zip) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (November 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile November 2025 (.zip) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification November 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Current (October 2025) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2025 (.zip) Ethiopia Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2025 (.geojson) Current Situation: October 2025 (.png) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Current Situation: October 2025 (.kml) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml)
Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Ethiopia
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Wheat, Season 2 Maize, Season 1 Sorghum, Season 1 Teff, Season 1 Wheat, Season 1
Satellite-derived products map

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all satellite-derived products
Livelihood Zone resources Ethiopia Rural Baseline SNNPR, November 2009 Ethiopia Typical Hunger Seasons, Month by Month, November 2009 Ethiopia Livelihoods Zones Map
Ethiopia 2018 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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