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Limited income-earning opportunities until end of lean season

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Djibouti
  • June 2016
Limited income-earning opportunities until end of lean season

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  • Key Messages
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2017
  • Key Messages
    • The March to May Diraac/Sugum rains, which were above average cumulatively in most parts of the country, partially restored pastures and water reserves. However, in Northwest Pastoral, Southeast Pastoral Border zone, and areas of Obock, Ali Sabieh and Dikhil regions, there are still water shortages due to the El Niño-related dryness, leaving many households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, food security outcomes are expected to improve in September after the end of the lean season.

    • From June to September, as seasonally typical, there is a drop in employment activities due to very high temperatures. Wealthier urban households will temporarily leave the country, and petty trade, such as the sale of snacks, will not be possible during school holidays. This drop in activities and income, along with higher food prices due to increased demand during Ramadan through the Eid celebration, will leave many households in Balbala, a populous peri-urban zone of Djibouti City, in Stress (IPC Phase 2).

    • According to UNHCR, as of June 15, there are a total of 35,562 refugees in Djibouti. The numbers of registered arrivals from Yemen and other countries has not increased since early May, but influxes are still expected to continue due to the conflict in Yemen. WFP is providing general food distributions and food for assets programs for the majority of the country’s refugees. 

    ZONE

     CURRENT ANOMALIES

     PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Southeast Pastoral-Border Zone, Northwest Pastoral Zone, and areas in Obock Region.

    • The March to May Diraac/Sugum rains were above normal in those areas, but they only partially restored the pastures and water reserves that had been severely depleted due to previous rainfall shortages.
    • The Karan/Karma rainy season from July to September, which accounts for around 70 percent of annual rainfall in Northwest Pastoral and about 35 percent in Southeast Border, is expected to restore rangeland and water reserves since it is forecasted to be average to slightly above-average.

    Central Pastoral and Southeast Roadside livelihood zones (Arta, Ali Sabieh, and Dikhil)

    • Long-term infrastructure (port, railway, roads) and rainwater management projects, which had been providing plenty of jobs and steadier income for poor households in these zones, are gradually ending and laying off workers.
    • The completion of some major public works and water management projects in the Tadjoura, Arta, and Ali Sabieh zones is expected to reduce further local job opportunities for the foreseeable future, restricting households’ purchasing power.

    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2017

    The March to May Diraac/Sugum rains, which were above average in cumulative totals across vast areas of Djibouti, were only able to partially restore depleted pastures and water reserves in the Northwest Pastoral, Southeast Pastoral Border zone and Obock region, which had experienced prolonged dryness associated with El Niño. However, these rains did lessen livestock losses and improve livestock body conditions and milk output ahead of the lean season, which extends from June through the end of September. In the Southeast zone, however, there were reports of livestock diseases, such as ticks and pneumonia.

    With the Karan/Karma rainy season from July to September expected to be average to slightly above-average in terms of cumulative rainfall, conditions should improve especially in Northwest Pastoral zone where these rains account for about 70 percent of annual rainfall. Even in the zones where the majority of poor households have been in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) because of previous seasons poor performance, households are expected to experience better food security outcomes and move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the October 2016 to January 2017 period. Improved rangeland and livestock body conditions, coupled with seasonal price decreases leading to greater market access, will allow for this improvement in the Northwest Pastoral and Southeast Pastoral-Border livelihood zones, as well as in parts of Dikhil, Ali Sabieh and Obock regions.

    According to CPC/IRI consensus forecasts, there is a 75 percent chance of a weak to moderate La Niña event beginning during the three month-season of September-October-December, which is likely to drive below-average rainfall across much of the Horn of Africa. As a result, the October to February Hays/Daada rains are likely to be below average. However, they should still help improve the vegetative conditions along the coastal areas, which were still poor after the Diraac/Sugum rains.

    According to UNHCR, as of June 15, there are a total of 35,562 refugees in Djibouti. The numbers of registered arrivals from Yemen and other countries has not increased since early May. However, due to the ongoing conflict in Yemen, refugee flows are still expected. Many refugees are likely to opt to live in Djibouti City, which will continue to limit employment opportunities for poor households in the host communities.

    Figures SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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