Food security improving except in coastal pastoral areas

• The Xays/Daada coastal rains (October to February) have been largely above average, continuing to improve pastures and livestock body conditions and increasing calving and milk sales. Although improvements have been slower in pastoralist areas of Al Sabieh, Obock, and Tadjourah regions, due to below-average rainfall in October, keeping many poor households there in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the majority of poor households across the country are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through May 2017.

• According to preliminary findings from WFP, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) for children under five years of age in Djibouti has decreased from an average of 11 percent in October 2015 to seven percent in October 2016. Child nutrition improvements were largely attributed to increased milk production, safer drinking water facilities, stable food prices, and food and cash distributions in highly vulnerable areas. Dikhil region, which improved the least, has a GAM prevalence of about 12 percent.

• Djibouti continues to host about 18,000 refugees, who rely on humanitarian assistance, mainly from WFP and UNHCR, and they are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). WFP, which provides refugees with food and cash transfers, reported that it might not be able to continue cash transfers in January 2017 due to funding shortfalls. Cash transfers help beneficiaries to diversify their diets and allows them to cover other essential needs. 

Although the cumulative total rainfall for the Xays/Daada season is above normal in most areas, the rains are forecast to be below average through February 2017. As a result, pastures are unlikely to improve further this season in parts of Ali Sabieh and coastal areas of Obock and Tadjourah regions where pastoralists have little milk to sell due to poor livestock body conditions. As the March-May 2017 Diraac/Sugum season, which contributes about 10 to 30 percent of annual rainfall for coastal areas, is also forecast to be below average, improvements will be marginal in the areas of concern. In order to earn income to cover their food gaps, poor pastoralists will rely more on daily labor and charcoal and/or sand sales during this outlook period. Poor households in these areas will therefore likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through May 2017. 

Favorable trends on world food markets are helping Djibouti’s staple food prices remain stable. Job opportunities are expected to remain normal, including in urban areas, through the end of the scenario period, which supports food access. Across most of Djibouti, pastoralists are now able to sell milk, and if needed some animals, as herd sizes have reportedly increased, in order to meet their food and essential non-food needs, except in Ali Sabieh where herd sizes have decreased by 17 percent due to poorer pasture conditions. All this contributes to keeping the majority of poor households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity during the outlook period.

Preliminary findings from a WFP food security monitoring survey conducted in October 2016 showed an average of a 40 percent decrease in the GAM prevalence (measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference, MUAC) for children under five over the past year (see Table 1). Improvements were largely attributed to increased milk production, expanded water conservation facilities, stable food prices, and humanitarian assistance in vulnerable areas.

There are approximately 18,000 refugees in Djibouti. The numbers remain stable despite attempts by migrants to transit Djibouti via the port of Obock, through Yemen, en route to Saudi Arabia. Migrants deported back to Obock receive assistance mainly from WFP and UNHCR. Refugees in Djibouti are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity during the outlook period.

Although in some pastoralist areas of Ali Sabieh, Obock, and Tadjourah, many poor households are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as well as the refugee population, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to persist through most of Djibouti through May 2017.