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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in southeastern, northwestern, and Obock pastoral areas

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Djibouti
  • December 2015
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in southeastern, northwestern, and Obock pastoral areas

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  • Key Messages
  • PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 2016
  • Key Messages
    • Dry conditions persist in much of Djibouti, driven in part by the ongoing El Niño. The Heys/Dadaa rains have regenerated pasture and increased water availability in parts of the country, but pasture conditions remain poor in southeastern, northwestern, and Obock pastoral areas where rainfall has been below average. Poor households in these areas are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through March 2016.

    • As of December 21, an estimated 30,606 displaced persons from Yemen have arrived in Djibouti. Approximately 6,048 of these persons are registered as refugees by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2,753 of which are sheltered in Markazi camp in Obock, while others are integrated with host households in urban areas

    ZONE

     CURRENT ANOMALIES

     PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Southeastern pastoral, Northwestern pastoral, and Obock pastoral areas

    • Poor pasture conditions persist as a result of the late start to the Heys/Dadaa rains and below average total rainfall in October and November. Rainfall amounts increased towards the end of November, but vegetation levels remain below average.
    • The Heys/Dadaa rains are expected to be average, with adequate temporal and spatial distribution, from December through the end of the season in February. This will improve pasture slightly and increase water availability.

    Obock pastoral areas and urban centers

    • The influx of refugees, migrants, and returnees has increased the labor force, putting pressure on the limited income-earning opportunities of poor households.
    • Given the ongoing conflict in Yemen, additional displacements into Djibouti are likely through March, putting further stress on income-earning opportunities.

    PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 2016

    The start of the October to February Heys/Dadaa rains has regenerated pasture and increased water availability, improving livestock resources. However, there was a late start to the rains and below average total rainfall in October and November in southeastern pastoral areas, Obock pastoral areas, and Tadjourah in the Northwest. As a result, vegetation levels in these areas are below average (Figure 1). The Heys/Dadaa rains are expected to be near average from December through the end of the season in February, slightly improving pasture conditions and increasing water availability. Nonetheless, given the prolonged dry conditions many households incurred abnormal livestock losses and sold atypically high numbers of livestock. 

    As a result, poor households have limited access to milk and livestock products. An estimated 110,000 people in southeastern pastoral, northwestern pastoral, and Obock pastoral areas are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through March 2016. Currently 20,500 of these people are being assisted with general food distribution and 18,500 through food for work programs.

    Most staple food prices remained stable over the past six months. However, bean prices in Djibouti city were 300 Djiboutian Franc (DJF) in early December, up from 240 DJF in July. Bean prices are expected to remain above average through at least March 2016. 

    According to UNHCR, an estimated 30,606 refugees, returnees, and migrants from Yemen have entered Djibouti as of December 21. Of the 6,048 registered refugees, 2,753 are housed in Al Markazi refugee camp in Obock. The influx from Yemen is in addition to an estimated 18,000 existing refugees residing in Holl Holl and Ali Addeh camps, most of which are displaced from Somalia. The influx of displaced persons has increased the labor force, putting pressure on the limited income-earning opportunities of poor households in areas where the displaced have integrated. However, additional labor opportunities from new infrastructural projects including the construction of Tadjourah Port, Tadjourah-Ethiopia highway, and Djibouti-Addis Ababa railway are benefiting labor-dependent households in areas near Arta, Ali Sabieh, and Tadjourah. 

    The majority of households in Djibouti will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March of 2016. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist for poor households in southeastern pastoral, northwestern pastoral, and Obock pastoral areas due to the continued impact of three previous successive below-average seasons and current poor pasture conditions that have resulted in limited livestock production and milk output.  

    Figures

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR IN A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Southern Obock Region, between January and December 2015, compared to the long-term mean.

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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