Reduction in humanitarian assistance during June to September lean season expected to cause food consumption gaps

• Food insecurity is anticipated to worsen for poor households in the Southeastern Borderside, Northwestern, and Obock pastoralists from May through September. A substantial reduction in humanitarian assistance, an early end to the October to February Xays/Dadaa rains, and an expected reduction in income earning opportunities from July to September, is likely to shift poor households to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May through September.
• The rapid deterioration in household food security in the Southeast, Northwest and Obock Regions, after very good Karan/Karma rains and average Xays/Dadaa rains, underlines the overwhelming dependence on humanitarian assistance and fragility of rural livelihoods. Close monitoring of both rural and urban poor households is necessary because of an anticipated influx of rural households to urban centers as rural food insecurity intensifies.

Food insecurity is projected to accentuate from May through September in three key areas of concern, namely, the Southeastern (Borderside) Pastoralist, Northwestern Pastoralist, and Obock Pastoralists and in the northern parts of the Central Lowland Pastoral livelihood zones. The positive impacts of atypically favorable July to September 2013 Karan/Karma rains on household food security have eroded due to a combination of abbreviated Xays/Dadaa rains, below-average March to April Diraac/Sugum rains, and substantial reduction in humanitarian assistance. Diraac/Sugum rains typically account for 20 to 40 percent of total annual rainfall in Obock and central and the northwestern parts of the country but are insignificant in the southeast. National food security assessments conducted in February 2014 by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Program (WFP), FEWS NET and the Government of Djibouti indicate a significant decline in food security with an estimated 70 percent of the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse, in February 2014, as compared to 59 percent in September 2013.  While remittances are likely to increase food access during the July to August Ramadan period and Eid Holiday, improvements are unlikely to mitigate the shortfall in humanitarian assistance and reduction in employment opportunities during the July to August lean season when employers migrate to Somalia, Ethiopia and the Gulf States.

March prices for sorghum flour, wheat flour, and rice have remained stable in most markets with the exception of Ali Sabieh. Progressive reductions in rail transport subsidies continue to put upward pressure on prices of sorghum flour sourced from Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, especially in the destination markets of Ali Sabieh and Tadjourah. A kilogram of sorghum flour retailed at DJF 176 in March compared to DJF 170 in February in Ali Sabieh market, but sorghum flour prices remained stable in Dikhill and Obock markets with prices of DJF 110 and 120 in Dikhill and Obock respectively in both February and March.  A similar trend for rice and wheat flour prices was observed in Dikhill, Obock, and Tadjourah markets where prices remained stable. Rice prices increased by five percent in Ali Sabieh in March compared to February.

Food insecurity is expected to worsen in the coming months in the main areas of concern is outlined below:

Southeastern (Borderside) Pastoral Zone

Food insecurity is projected to intensify from May through September for poor households in the Southeastern Borderside Zone. The predominant rains in this zone are the October to February Xays/Dadaa rains which ended early in January, precipitating early depletion of pasture, browse and water. Cold conditions in December predisposed livestock to disease and lowered their health status, milk output, and market value. The adverse impacts of lowered livestock productivity and crop output on household access to food have been exacerbated by considerable reductions in in humanitarian assistance.  Only 10,300 people accessed humanitarian assistance in March in Ali Sabieh and Dikhill, as compared to 30,700 in June 2013. FEWS NET expects deteriorating food access due to the WFP’s plans to reduce food rations by 50 percent from May through September. However, WFP expects improvements in the food assistance pipeline in September through a United States Governmentpledge for food assistance.

In addition to reductions in humanitarian assistance, an influx of poor pastoral households from northwestern Somalia has further constrained food access and natural resource availability, underlining the precarious food security situation that poor households continue to face.Key income earning opportunities, particularly charcoal production, are expected to decline seasonably between May and September, because high temperatures limit the viability of most activities, further narrowing capacities of poor households to access food. The combination of reduced humanitarian assistance, worsening livestock conditions, and reduced income earning opportunities during the July to September lean season, is likely to result in food consumption gaps for a large proportion of poor households.  Poor households are projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity from May through September.

Obock pastoral areas in the Central Lowland Pastoral Zone

The projected outlook points to deepening food insecurity among poor pastoral households in Obock.  The October to February Xays/Dadaa rains, the most important season in Obock, ended early in January. Obock pastoralists are isolated from the rest of the country and have limited access to government interventions, humanitarian assistance, and markets.  Heightened insecurity in Obock has constrained normal access to markets and restricted proper targeting of the already limited quantities of humanitarian assistance. The March to May Diraac/Sugum rains, which account for 20 to 40 percent of annual rainfall in Obock, have so far been sporadic. Livestock holdings are low, estimated to be less than one Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) per household. Thus, livestock production is unlikely to maintain household food security since less than five percent of household income in Obock is derived from livestock production.

Unlike other pastoralists, Obock households source more than 70 percent of their food needs through inter-communal assistance and remittances compared to pastoralists in other regionswho source 50-70 percent of their food needs through market purchases, underlining the absence of self-supporting livelihoods among Obock pastoralists.  February 2014 national food security assessments indicated that poor households in Obock spend an estimated DJF 4,000 on food and non-food expenditures per month, as compared to DJF 13,000-19,000 among southeastern and northwestern pastoralists, indicative of constrained purchasing capacities.  The Coping Strategies Index—which indicates the number of times a week households adopt destructive coping strategies—was 5.9 for poor pastoral households in Obock in February compared an about 2-3 for the southeastern and northwestern pastoralists. Although food prices for sorghum, rice, wheat flour and sugar have remained stable from October 2013 through March 2014, many poor households lack the capacity to purchase food without severely compromising their livelihoods and household nutrition status.  Poor households in Obock are anticipated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May through September.

Northwestern Pastoral Zone

While food insecurity is expectedto worsen for poor households from May through September, last year’s favorable Karan/Karma rains from July to September enhanced livestock kidding and milk production, and increased water availability in the Dorra and Madjoul reservoirs. Erratic Diraac/Sugum rains have had little impact in improving regeneration of key grazing fundamentals – pasture, browse and water availability. Relatively stronger livelihoods have mitigated the decline in food security.  Households in the northwest have an estimated 3.5 TLUs per household as compared to 1-2 TLUs in the southeast and Obock.  Pastoralists from the northwest were also able to migrate to the Xays/Dadaa-dependent coastal areas from October to January.  However, an 80 percent reduction in humanitarian assistance in April 2014 as compared to April 2013 is likely to cause severe deterioration in household food security for a significant portion of poor households dependent on humanitarian assistance, with no livestock, and limited income earning opportunities.  A nutrition survey conducted in December 2013 by the Ministry of Health and UNICEF indicates high levels ofglobal acute malnutrition (GAM) across the country. In the northwest, GAM prevalence was 16.4 percent (CI: 11.4-22.4at a 95 percent confidence level), suggesting the likelihood of more severe outcomes and household vulnerability to shocks as the lean season progresses from June through September.  The food security of poor households in the Northwestern Pastoral Zone is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May through the outlook period in September.

As food insecurity worsens in rural livelihood zones, the influx of pastoralists from poor households to urban centers is likely to increase.  Monitoring the evolution in urban food insecurity in the coming months will be necessary because income generating opportunities will be insufficient to cope with increased labor demand from rural areas, especially during the July to September summer and lean season, when employment is severely constrained.  Poor households in Lablayeh 1 and 2 and Warabley in the Balbala urban settlement (which represents 35 percent of the country’s population) are the most vulnerable group due to the high levels of unemployment exhibited in poor social-economic conditions and limited purchasing capacities