Erratic Karan/Karma rains limit improvements in food security

• Rainfall performance varied across the country in September. Favorable rains replenished pasture and browse in the Northwest, improving household access to food. Ongoing depletion of pasture and water resources due to extended dryness continues to threaten pastoralists’ access to food and income in Obock and Southeast Borderside areas where Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) persists.

• Food security in the Northeast is expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in October. Average to above-average October to December Heys/Dadaa rains will enable recovery of pasture and browse in coastal areas, easing acute food insecurity for poor households.

• Karan/Karma rains continued in most pastoral areas of the country, but remained erratic and poorly distributed in many parts of the country.  Poor households in Obock continue to face the highest severity of acute food insecurity as a result of ongoing drought. Conversely, adequate rainfall performance improved food security conditions in the Northwest. High levels of food insecurity continue to be exacerbated by insufficient food assistance in terms of the number of households targeted and quantity of rations.
• Pasture, browse, and water resources recovered in the Northwest following adequate rainfall in September, improving livestock body conditions. In the Northeast, erratic and poorly distributed rainfall improved water availability, but was insufficient to regenerate pasture for livestock. The July to September Karan/Karma season is the most important season in Northeast Pastoral areas and pastoralist livelihoods depend on rainfall performance. The delayed onset of seasonal rains and poor distribution in September has prevented recovery of pastoralist households in these areas who continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!).
• Depletion of pasture, browse, and water resources worsened in Southeast Pastoral Borderside and Obock areas due to persistent rainfall deficits. Drought caused pastoralists in Hindi, Biidley and KabahKabah zones to migrate to Ali Ouney, where conditions are better. Favorable rains in the Southeast Roadside Livelihood Zone, particularly in Ali Addeh and Holl-Holl have contributed to some improvements in natural resources and livestock body conditions but pastoralists in these areas remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Households in rural Obock remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
• The prices of rice, wheat and sorghum flours remained stable across most markets between July and August except in Tadjourah where wheat prices increased by 10 percent as a result of increased demand for imported wheat from Ethiopia.

Overall improvements in food security conditions are e in the coming months. Increased vegetation and water availability during the Karan/Karma rainy season improved livestock body conditions in many areas of the country. Medium-term forecasts indicate normal to above-normal October to December Xays/Daada rains which will further increase natural resource availability, improving access to food and income sources. Goat milk sales, an important source of income for pastoralists, are likely to increase due to the rise in demand as holiday travelers return to the country.

However, in the Central Lowlands and Southeast Border Subzone, food and income sources will remain limited for pastoralists until the end of October.  Livestock prices are not expected to increase until October/November when livestock body conditions will improve with Heys/Dadaa rains and demand for livestock for the Eid holiday increases.

Food security outcomes in the Northwest Pastoral livelihood zones are expected improve in starting in October, and households will likely remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity through December. The impacts of extended dry conditions and depletion of natural resources in Obock and Southeast Borderside areas will likely inhibit recovery for poor households, which will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through December.