Improvements limited in the South by early end of Heys-Dadaa rains

• The food security situation in most pastoral areas of the country has remained stable compared to last month. However, the interruption of the good Heys/Dadaa rains in December has limited expected improvements.

• Major rural public works projects are helping to diversify the sources of income of pastoral households and improve their food access. As a result, households in Southeastern roadside areas and coastal areas of Tadjourah are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

There is reportedly a general improvement in food security conditions in most rural areas of the country. There were average levels of rainfall activity during the Heys/Dadaa season (between October and February), but rains were poorly distributed and came to a premature end in December.

The Heys/Dadaa rains in Southeastern pastoral border areas were ineffective, where pastures are virtually nonexistent. There are high rates of mortality among new-born animals and female goats giving birth are in weakened condition. However, the availability of water has improved since 2013. Households in Southeastern border areas are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels of food insecurity, whose severity is mitigated by ongoing distributions of full food assistance rations.

The rains ended in December in Southeastern pastoral roadside areas, where pasture conditions are starting to deteriorate. Pasture is in short supply in both Biyo Kalaf and Ali Addeh. There has been limited milk availability for household consumption from livestock-raising activities since the beginning of the month. However, local populations are still experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity with stone-cutting activities and construction work for the building of the railroad helping to diversify and increase their sources of income.

The Heys-Dadaa rains provided major benefits for households in central areas of the country close to the coast, whose diets have improved with their better access to milk and other animal products compared with the same time last year. Their incomes have also improved with the men engaged in construction work on the Tadjourah port requiring unskilled labor. Thus, local households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. There are available supplies of pasture throughout the area between Randa and Galina, including Kalaf and Sagallou. Seasonal herd movements by transhumant livestock (particularly goat and camel herds) from Weima towards the coast were reported in January and February.

However, poor households in the central mountain are suffering from a virtual inexistence of pasture in the Mabla region. There is limited access to water in Weima and Mabla sectors on account of the lack of wells and other types of infrastructure such as reservoirs. With their limited access to pasture and water, livestock are forced to travel approximately two hours to drink from traditional wells. A large majority of households is highly dependent on migrant remittances from urban areas and, aside from livestock-raising, have virtually no income-generating activities. In addition, their isolation is precluding them from profiting from the road-building activities in these areas. With the continued cold weather, there are reports of outbreaks of animal diseases such as bronchitis. There has been no food assistance in this part of the country since last year and local food-for-work projects have not resumed due to a lack of funding from the WFP. Area households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.

The current situation has not affected most of the assumptions used by FEWS NET in establishing the most likely scenario presented in its Food Security Outlook for January through June 2015, apart from the following updates:

• The coastal Heys/Dadaa rains between October and February in southern areas of the country came to a halt in December, which will limit the expected improvement in the availability of animal products in these areas.
• Food assistance is likely to be reduced by half as of March, particularly for residents of Southeastern border areas already receiving half-rations, so as to extend their coverage to residents of Southeastern roadside areas.
• As of April, construction work on the road to Ethiopia will likely provide major benefits for households in Northwestern pastoral areas by diversifying their sources of income.

The recent slight improvements in food security conditions will most likely be reversed by the premature interruption of the Heys/Dadaa rains and early start of the lean season. There is increasingly limited access to natural vegetation in Northern coastal areas, though seasonal herd movements to this area by transhumant livestock will continue through the month of April. In addition, as of March, food assistance to residents of Southeastern pastoral border areas will be cut in half to extend the coverage of food rations supplied by the WFP to the entire region. Local households will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) levels of food insecurity through June 2015.

The development dynamics set in motion by rural public works projects are providing continuing benefits for rural populations, particularly in the Tadjourah and Ali Sabieh Regions. Household incomes are more than 30 percent above-average. As of March/April, construction work on the road between Balho and Ethiopia will move into Northwestern pastoral areas (Dorra), where local residents will be able to find work as unskilled laborers or day laborers, in small-scale trading activities, restaurants, etc. With continued deliveries of food assistance, households in Northwestern pastoral areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity as of April.

Pastoral households will also experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity between now and June on account of the direct effects of the good Heys-Dadaa rains in central coastal areas. Five pilot projects for the growing of forage and market garden crops were started up in January in central mountain areas. However, there will be no real yields from these activities until next year, with poor households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes between February and June.