Land preparation and Season A planting continue with favorable rains

• Early seasonal rainfall enabled land preparation and planting for Season A in August and September. Average to above-average rainfall is expected from October to December and Season A harvest prospects are favorable. 

• Staple food prices stabilized from July to August but remain above the five-year average in many markets across the country. Above-average prices are due to Season B production deficits, particularly in Northeastern livelihood zones. 

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is expected to persist among poor households in the Northeast until December when food availability and access will improve with Season A harvests. 

An early onset of the rainy season in August enabled land preparation and early Season A planting which typically occurs in September (Figure 1). Agricultural activities continued throughout September offering labor opportunities for the poor. 

In general, staple food prices stabilized from July to August but remain above average.  Bean prices stabilized in August and were lower than last year, especially in Kirundo, Muyinga and Ngozi markets. Bean prices were 11, 15, and 21 percent above the five-year average in Kirundo, Muyinga, and Gitega markets, respectively. Sweet potato prices also stabilized in August, and declined slightly in Bujumbura, Kirundo and Muyinga but are higher than the five-year average. Sweet potato prices increased by 20 percent in Ngozi from July to August and are double last year’s prices in Ruyigi. Whole maize prices also stabilized from July to August but are 12 percent more expensive than last year and 40 percent above the five-year average. Prices will likely increase seasonably between September and November as market dependence increases during the lean season.

Even in post-harvest periods, poor households source much of their food from markets because landholdings are too small to produce enough crops for household needs. Household stocks were even smaller this year because of production deficits in June. Above-average prices have weakened household capacity to meet food requirements without reducing non-food expenditures, as wages have not kept pace with food prices.

Access to food is expected to decline during the lean season until December, when Season A harvests begin. October to December cumulative rainfall is expected to be average to above-average and prospects for Season A harvests are positive. Poor households in Northeastern livelihood zones including in Kirundo, Cankuzo, Gitega, Muyinga and Rutana provinces of Dépressions du Nord, Plateaux Secs de l’Est and Dépressions de l’Est, currently face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Even with stabilizing prices, households face substantial food deficits because of poor production during season B, coupled with the structural deficit at the household level even during normal production seasons. Improvements are expected with the availability of Season A green harvests in December, when poor households are expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.