High food prices, trade restrictions, and Fall Armyworm heighten food insecurity

• Season A planting is complete, and according to FAO, there is a Fall Armyworm (FAW) infestation that affected newly planted maize. The extent of the infestation is unclear, but this is likely to impact yields, particularly in Makamba, Rumonge, Muyinga, and Kirundo provinces. As a result, some poor households in these areas may face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by April-May 2018, but Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is the highest expected area classification through May 2018. 

• The lean season is ongoing and poor households face food access constraints due to low household stocks and below-average incomes for needed market purchases. Staple food prices continued to increase in October, with bean and cassava flour prices approximately 25 and 100 percent higher, respectively, than a year ago. Prices should ease slightly in late November ahead of harvests, and seasonally rise again in March 2018, remaining slightly higher or about equal to the five year-averages through May 2018.

• The outflow of asylum seekers from Burundi has slowed since July due to Tanzania’s suspension of prima facie refugee status, favorable domestic harvests, and security improvements, though there is still a climate of political uncertainty. Currently, the approximately 36,000 Congolese refugees living in camps in Burundi are dependent on WFP food assistance and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity. 

The 2017 Season C (July-October) harvesting, primarily in the marshlands, is nearly complete and is likely to be near average. According to FAO, the season accounts for about 26 percent of total annual crop production and reportedly there were only minor FAW infestations on maize during the last stages of development. However, there is greater concern for the potential impacts of FAW on Season A (September-January) since it has already attacked newly planted maize in lower altitude areas, particularly in Makamba, Rumonge, Muyinga, and Kirundo provinces. The level of infestation is unclear, and the impact of the pest may not become known until the crop is harvested. In some parts of Muyinga Province, some infestation control measures have proved successful, but the Government of Burundi does not have a national action plan in place nor a nationwide prevention and control campaign. Since a combination of temperature, winds, and rainfall patterns influence FAW movement and affect chances of a severe re-infestation, FEWS NET will continue to monitor the situation to assess its impact on food availability and access. 

During the ongoing lean season, households are engaging in Season A casual agricultural labor opportunities, but those are below-average due to a general decline of incomes due to the current socio-economic problems. With rising staple food prices, household income is insufficient to cover both essential food and non-food needs. As a result, poor households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with some of the most vulnerable households, particularly in Cibitoke, Bujumbura Rural, and Muyinga Provinces, likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to localized Season B production shortfalls and a low income-earning capacity.

There were some early seasonal (September-October) rainfall deficits in parts of the low altitude areas of the Imbo Plains and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones, but the forecast for the rest of Season A is for above-average rainfall, which is expected to support crop maturation. Barring a severe FAW infestation and inaccessibility of higher quality seeds and fertilizers, a near-average harvest remains likely. On the other hand, Season B rainfall (February-May 2018) is forecast to be below average, which may lead to a below-average harvest, beginning in June, which is outside of the scenario period. Despite staple food prices rising further during the April-May lean season, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist as poor households expand their coping strategies, such as selling some small ruminants, to cover their minimum food needs.   

For the first time in Burundi, a Global Acute Malnutrition IPC workshop was held in September 2017, using data collected from October 2016 to March 2017 as part of the Demographic and Health Survey. Half of the 18 provinces had a prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM weight-for-height z-score) less than five percent and were classified as Acceptable, indicative of IPC Phase 1, whereas the remaining half had a GAM prevalence between five and 7.4 percent and were classified as Alert, indicative of IPC Phase 2, through May 2018 (see Figure 1). According to the IPC, the main drivers of GAM in children under five years of age were: 1) very poor quality of food intake, 2) relatively high prevalence of diseases, particularly malaria, and 3) poor sanitation. Depending on the severity of the FAW infestation on Season A, food availability may decrease, which could lead to a deterioration in GAM, particularly during the April-May 2018 lean season. 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through May 2018, but there is the possibility that some poor households may face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by April-May 2018. As they are completely dependent on food assistance from WFP, which has funding shortfalls, approximately 36,000 Congolese refugees living in camps in Burundi face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity.