Rainfall slightly below average at the start of season in September

• The start of September to December Season A rainfall has been slightly below average and erratic, causing moisture stress to young crops. However, the rainy season is still forecast to be average, which is likely to result in average December-January crop production. 

• Ongoing civil insecurity, which has caused displacement and disrupted livelihood activities, remains the main driver of food insecurity. The provinces of greatest concern are Bujumbura Rural, where conflict is reducing job opportunities, and Muyinga, Cankuzo, and Rutana, where control measures are limiting the ability of households to migrate to Tanzania for work. These areas are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period, and some households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• The number of Burundian refugees in neighboring countries continues to rise, reaching 311,956 by October 27. In September alone, nearly 16,000 Burundians fled the country. The majority have sought refuge in Tanzania. 

The start of September to December Season A rainfall was slightly below-average and erratic in September and October. In September, when most areas typically receive around 90 mm, rainfall was approximately 10 mm below normal (Figure 2). Despite this, the rainy season is forecast to be average. With forecast favorable rainfall, and the expectation that area cultivated will be normal as displacement has not significant reduced area cultivated, December to January production is still likely to be average.

Most poor household still have some household stocks from Season B production and have started harvesting September to November Season C production in marshlands, which represents 15 to 25 percent of annual production. This production is helping moderate food consumption gaps during the ongoing lean period. 

Staple food prices are only slightly above last year and the five-year average, including in provinces of concern (Figure 3). Although prices increased in recent months, this is typical during the September to December lean period. The recent resumption of food imports from Tanzania should support further price decreases in eastern provinces. Despite average prices, many labor-dependent households have low purchasing capacity due to below-average incomes. 

The provinces of greatest concern are Bujumbura Rural where few business are choosing to operate in the current climate and daily workers are losing formal and informal job opportunities. Similarly, many households in the Eastern border provinces of Muyinga, Cankuzo, and Rutana have lost the opportunity to travel to Tanzania for work as a result of restrictions to movement implemented early this year.

A mass screening of 437,647 children aged 6-59 months conducted by UNICEF and World Vision in August 2016 reported a Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) between 2.2 and 7.4 percent. The highest prevalence of 7.4 percent was in Rutana. Since the time of this survey, malnutrition likely further deteriorated as stocks are drawn down during the ongoing lean season. The arrival of Season A harvest is expected to increase household food access. However, in the areas of concern listed above, the livelihoods of many poor households have been severely disrupted. In these areas, poor households rely heavily on casual labor to earn income for food purchases. Conflict and migration restrictions are expected to continue, impacting their income-earning opportunities throughout the outlook period. These areas are therefore likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), although some households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in November as their food reserves are at their lowest.  

The number of Burundian refugees in neighboring countries, the majority of which are in Tanzania, continued to rise, reaching 311,956 by October 27. In September alone, nearly 16,000 Burundians fled the country. The number of internally displaced people remains at an estimated 100,000.