Normal Season A harvests expected to improve food availability country-wide

• Season A 2015 planting is almost complete across the country.  Average to above-average rainfall is expected from October to December and Season A harvest prospects are favorable. Average production is expected.

• Staple food prices remain above the five-year average in many markets across the country. High prices are due to Season B production deficits, particularly in Northeastern livelihood zones.

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is expected to persist among poor households in the Northeast until December when food availability and access will improve with Season A harvests. From December through March, most poor households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. 

Season 2015 A planting is underway, providing labor opportunities for the poor. Between mid-September and early October, rainfall was slightly below average across most of the country (Figure 1) interrupting planting activities in some areas. However, moderate to heavy rainfall since mid-October replenished soil moisture and cropping conditions. Cumulative rainfall during the second half of October was above-average, enabling completion of Season A planting.  Heavy rainfall and strong winds in the Buragane and Plateaux Humides livelihood zones caused flooding and some crop damage in Muramvya and Makamba provinces. Overall, prospects for Season A harvests are positive and average production is expected, due to anticipated average to above-average rains in November and December.

In general, staple food prices stabilized from August to September but remain above average.  Bean prices stabilized in September and were lower than last year, especially in Kirundo, Muyinga and Ngozi markets. Bean prices were 21, 17, and 14 percent above the five-year average in Bujumbura, Muyinga, and Gitega markets, respectively. Sweet potato prices also stabilized in September in most markets, except in Muyinga and Bujumbura  where they increased by 10 and 20 percent, respectively, and remained above average.

Whole maize prices also stabilized from August to September but are 13 and 43 percent more expensive than last year and the five-year average. Price increases are largely due to Season B production deficits, although increased imports have mitigated more severe price shocks in many areas.  Staple food prices are expected to continue increasing seasonably between October and November, as market dependence increases during the lean season. Prices will likely remain above average until January when Season A harvests replenish normal market supply levels.

Poor Season B production continues to cause additional strain on poor households during this year’s lean season. Especially in the Northeast, earlier-than-normal reductions in food and income sources have impacted food security for many households. Fewer labor opportunities are available compared to a normal year and wages have declined, reducing household capacity to cope with high staple food prices.

Food distributions in September by the World Food Program eased food insecurity for 8000 households in Kirundo. Starting in November, voucher/cash for work programs in Kirundo will continue to improve access to food for 8000 of the poorest households until January when households can replace food stocks from Season A production. These assistance programs are helping to alleviate acute food insecurity, but do not target the entire Phase 2 population.

Access to food is expected to decline in November as the lean season peaks. The combination of above-average food prices, early depletion of household stocks, fewer income earning opportunities, as well as reduced savings from fewer Season B crop sales will prevent improvements in food security for poor households in the Northeast before Season A harvests begin in December. Poor households in Northeastern livelihood zones including in Kirundo, Cankuzo, Gitega, Muyinga and Rutana provinces of Dépressions du Nord, Plateaux Secs de l’Est and Dépressions de l’Est will remain in  Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through the end of November. Improvements are expected with the availability of Season A green harvests in December when food security outcomes for these households are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from December to March, 2015.