Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Although the onset of the rains was earlier than usual this season, the temporal distribution of rainfall during the month of September was poor. For much of the country, rainfall was also below-average during the last ten days of September (Figure 2). Consequently, many farmers have not finished planting their crops, especially in the southeastern regions. In a normal year, farmers finish planting between mid-September and mid-October. Banana Xanthomonas wilt, cassava mosaic, and cassava brown streak are also more prevalent this year than normal and are threatening crop production, especially in the Bururi, Makamba, Rutana, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura provinces. However, if rainfall levels are normal for the remainder of the season, as forecasted by the National Meteorological Agency, season 'A' harvests are expected to be average.

Although national crop production levels during the 2012 season 'B' were similar to last year, some areas of the country experienced below-average harvests. In these areas, household food stocks after the harvests were unusually low, lasting on average less than four months. Since season 'A' harvests occur six months after season 'B', many households have currently depleted their food stocks and are dependent on market purchases until the end of the year, especially in the Hauts Plateaux Humides and the Dépressions de l'Est. This increased demand, along with low supply, has caused staple food prices at many markets to rise to levels well above last year and the 5-year average (10-40 percent). Given that wages from casual labor, the most important economic activity for the poor, have remained at normal levels, the increased food prices have caused the purchasing power of poor households to decline, reducing these households' access to food. Until the harvests in late December, poor households will engage in various coping strategies, such as eating less of their preferred foods or reducing their number of meals. The season 'C' harvest (September through December in marshland areas) is ongoing. However, season 'C' production only makes up 15 percent of Burundi's total crop production and is not expected to offset the effects of the low household food stocks.

Due to below-normal household stocks in many areas and above-average food prices across the country, most households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of December. When the 2013 season 'A' harvests occur in late December to January, households and markets will replenish their food stocks. At markets across the country, demand for food staples will be reduced, and food prices are expected to decline. Households with landholdings will then rely on their own food stocks and poor landless households will be able to access food via market purchases. From January through March 2013, most households are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1).  

Dépressions de l’Est, Hauts Plateaux Humides, rural integrated villages, and refugee camps

Households in the Dépressions de l’Est and the Hauts Plateaux Humides, as well as returnees living in rural integrated villages and refugees in camps, are particularly vulnerable to shocks due to several factors, such as small or no landholdings, infertile soils, and a lack of access to sustainable livelihoods. As a result, poor households in these areas have been most greatly impacted by the localized, poor season 'B' harvest and crop diseases. These households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the harvests in late December. After the harvests, these households will be food secure (IPC Phase 1).

The Tanzanian government has also announced that the Mtabila camp, which currently houses approximately 36,000 Burundi refugees, will be closing at the end of the year. Preparations in Burundi are currently being made in terms of temporary housing, land, and food aid to assist households who may return to Burundi when the camp closes. Households returning from Tanzania will be more likely to have difficulties accessing basic food needs.