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Season A activities progress with above-average rainfall performance

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Burundi
  • November 2014
Season A activities progress with above-average rainfall performance

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected outlook through March 2015
  • Key Messages
    • Above-average rainfall performance has enabled Season A crop development. Harvest prospects are favorable due to expected above-average rainfall forecasted for the remainder of the season. January 2015 Season A production is expected to be near normal. 

    • Staple food prices remain above the five-year average in many markets across the country. High prices are due to Season B production deficits, particularly in Northeastern livelihood zones. 

    • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is expected to persist among poor households in the Northeast until December when food availability and access will improve with Season A harvests. Food security is likely to improve country-wide to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from January to March.


    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Countrywide

    • October rainfall was well above average ranging between 25 and 150 millimeters (mm) above the mean, with surpluses of up to 200 to 250 mm in localized areas of the extreme northeast and extreme northwest (Figure 1). Deficits were observed in early November (Figure 2), but normal rainfall resumed in the second dekad of November
    • Staple food prices remain above average, ranging between 20 and 40 percent above the five-year average.

     

     

    • Average to above-average rainfall is expected for the remainder of the season, through December.

    Projected outlook through March 2015

    Season A agricultural activities, mainly weeding, continue to provide labor opportunities for the poor. Cumulative Season A rainfall remains above average country-wide despite deficits in early November. Season A harvests are expected to begin on-time in late December/ January and average production is expected across most of the country due to favorable rainfall performance.

    In general, staple food prices did not increase in October as they typically do this time of year due to increased imports from Tanzania and Uganda. Food prices varied on average, by just 5 percent from September to October but remain above average in most markets. October prices of sweet potatoes and sorghum were 22 and 27 percent above the five-year average and cassava flour and maize prices were 34 and 43 percent higher than average, respectively. Conversely, bean prices remain near average in most markets, likely due to higher import volumes compared to other commodities.

    Above-average prices are largely due to Season B production deficits, although increased imports have mitigated more severe price shocks in many areas.  Staple food prices are expected to decline seasonably in December/January as Season A harvests become available.

    Poor Season B production continues to impact coping capacity of poor households during the September to December lean season. Especially in the Northeast, earlier-than-normal reductions in food and income sources have worsened food security for many households due to increased market dependence and above-average food prices. However, access to food will improve as green harvests become available in December, followed by main harvests in January.

    Ongoing food assistance by the World Food Program, through voucher/cash for work programs, continue to ease food insecurity for around 8,000 of the poorest households in Kirundo and will continue until January 2015. However, these programs target only a small portion of the population facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity.

    Poor households in northeastern livelihood zones, including in Kirundo, Cankuzo, Gitega, Muyinga, and Rutana provinces of Dépressions du Nord, Plateaux Secs de l’Est, and Dépressions de l’Est will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through December. Food security outcomes are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from January to March as access to food and income sources improves during the Season A harvest and post-harvest period. 

    Figures Seasonal calendar for a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar of typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Rainfall anomaly in millimeters for October, 2014

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Rainfall anomaly in millimeters for October, 2014

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 2. Rainfall anomaly in millimeters, November 1-10, 2014

    Figure 3

    Figure 2. Rainfall anomaly in millimeters, November 1-10, 2014

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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