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Prices seasonally rise as lean season progresses

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Burundi
  • November 2013
Prices seasonally rise as lean season progresses

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through March 2014
  • Projected Outlook through March 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Though most households have Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity, poor households in the Plateaux Humides and Congo Nile Crest zones will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of food insecurity until harvests begin in December. These areas experienced below-average production last season. In addition, there are fewer opportunities for households to migrate to Tanzania for work, given the recent expulsion of Burundians from Tanzania.

    • Bean prices are 34 percent above the five-year average in Ngozi, a key market in the Plateaux Humides zone. Prices of other staple commodities, such as cassava flour and banana, were also above average in September.

    • Approximately 39,000 Burundians were expelled from Tanzania as illegal immigrants in September, adding to the existing refugee, returnee, and IDP population of approximately 170,000 people within Burundi. This new returnee population requires continued humanitarian assistance to meet essential food and non-food needs.

    ZoneCurRENT ANOMALIESPROJECTED ANOMALIES
    National
    • Rainfall in October was 10-50 percent below normal.

    • Bean prices slightly increased in September compared to August, and 34 percent above average in Ngozi market.

    • According to Institut Géographique du Burundi (IGEBU), rainfall for the September-January “small rains” is expected to be near average to above-average. 
    • Bean prices are expected to continue increasing until the next harvests in December/January, in line with seasonal trends.
       

     


    Projected Outlook through March 2014

    Rainfall in September was 25-50 percent above average, but October rainfall was 10-15 percent below normal (Figure 2).  Crops are recovering following near normal rainfall in the first ten days of November and are almost flowering, as they typically would at this time.  The impacts of the variable rainfall on crop development are not yet clear. According to IGEBU, seasonal rainfall is expected to range from near-average to above-average through the rest of the season.

    Household-level food stocks are seasonally declining as the lean season progresses, but households in the Plateaux Humides and Congo Nile Crest livelihood zones face Stressed food insecurity due to below-average production last season caused by plant diseases (banana Xanthomonas wilt, cassava mosaic, and cassava brown streak) and variable rainfall.  Households in these areas also have reduced income due to reduced prices for coffee, a cash crop for a significant number of households in these livelihood zones.

    Prices of key staple commodities stabilized in some markets and slightly increased in September, especially for beans, as typically occurs this time of year. In Ngozi, bean prices in September were 9 percent higher than in August, and were 34 percent above the five-year average. In Muyinga, bean prices increased by 2 percent compared to August and were 33 percent above the five-year average. Although cassava flour prices slightly declined compared to August, they are still 28 percent above average.

    Around 39,000 Burundians were recently expelled from Tanzania as illegal immigrants, and need immediate humanitarian assistance from organizations as they rebuild their livelihoods. However, WFP – Burundi recently experienced a cut to its July to December 2013 funding, which led to a reduction in assistance programming. 

    Most households in the country face Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), though poor households in the Plateaux Humides and Congo Nile Crest livelihood zones face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels. Food security will continue to deteriorate in these zones until December. The food security situation will likely improve countrywide in December-January, with Season 2014 A harvests.  All zones are then expected to experience None/Minimal (Phase 1) acute food insecurity through March 2014.


    Projected Outlook through March 2014

    Rainfall in September was 25-50 percent above average, but October rainfall was 10-15 percent below normal (Figure 2). Crops are recovering following near normal rainfall in the first ten days of November and are almost flowering, as they typically would at this time. The impacts of the variable rainfall on crop development are not yet clear. According to IGEBU, seasonal rainfall is expected to range from near-average to above-average through the rest of the season.

    Household-level food stocks are seasonally declining as the lean season progresses, but households in the Plateaux Humides and Congo Nile Crest livelihood zones face Stressed food insecurity due to below-average production last season caused by plant diseases (banana Xanthomonas wilt, cassava mosaic, and cassava brown streak) and variable rainfall. Households in these areas also have reduced income due to reduced prices for coffee, a cash crop for a significant number of households in these livelihood zones. 

    Prices of key staple commodities stabilized in some markets and slightly increased in September, especially for beans, as typically occurs this time of year. In Ngozi, bean prices in September were 9 percent higher than in August, and were 34 percent above the five-year average. In Muyinga, bean prices increased by 2 percent compared to August and were 33 percent above the five-year average. Although cassava flour prices slightly declinedcomparedtoAugust, they are still 28 percent above average. 

    Around 39,000 Burundians were recently expelled from Tanzania as illegal immigrants, and need immediate humanitarian assistance from organizations as they rebuild their livelihoods. However, WFP – Burundi recently experienced a cut to its July to December 2013 funding, which led to a reduction in assistance programming. 

    Most households in the country face Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), though poor households in the Plateaux Humides and Congo Nile Crest livelihood zones face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels. Food security will continue to deteriorate in these zones until December. The food security situation will likely improve countrywide in December-January, with Season 2014 A harvests. All zones are then expected to experience None/Minimal (Phase 1) acute food insecurity through March 2014. 

    Figures SEASONAL CALENDAR IN A TYPICAL YEAR

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR IN A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    Rainfall anomaly, October 2013

    Figure 2

    Rainfall anomaly, October 2013

    Source: FEWS NET/USGS

    Figure 3

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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