Food availability and access constrained as the main lean season peaks

• The depletion of household food stocks has continued as the main lean season peaks. The proportion of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity will increase until the season 'A' harvests in late December-January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is present in the Dépressions de l’Est, high humid mountainous zones (Buyenzi and Kilimiro), rural integrated villages, and refugee camps. After the harvests, most households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. 

• High demand and low supply for staple foods have caused market prices to be 18-40 percent higher than last year. This has reduced food access for poor households who are market dependent at this time. 

• Above-average October rains, especially in the northwest, have caused localized floods, waterlogging, increased soil erosion, and crop damage. The prevalence of crop diseases is also unusually high this year in southeastern regions of the country. 

Although the rains started early this season, temporal distribution of rainfall in September was poor. This delayed planting activities in some areas, particularly in Buragane and Kumoso, and will result in slightly delayed harvests (late January to early February compared to late December to January during a normal year). In October, above-average rains caused localized floods, erosion, and waterlogging, particularly in the northwest. This negatively impacted crops, which were mostly at early stages of growth. Forecasts are predicting normal to above-normal rainfall in November and December. If above-normal rains continue, bean yields may be reduced as water saturated soils can be detrimental to bean growth. Banana Xanthomonas wilt, cassava mosaic, and cassava brown streak are also unusually prevalent this year and are threatening crop production, especially in the Bururi, Makamba, Rutana, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura provinces. 

The main lean season is currently peaking across the country. In some areas, harvests from season 'B' (June to July) were poor. These poor harvests, coupled with the high prevalence of crop diseases, have caused household food stocks levels to be below-normal. According to the World Food Programme's postharvest estimates, household food stocks were sufficient to cover, on average, food needs for approximately two to five months after the end of the season 'B' harvests. As it is now about four months after the harvests were completed, many households have depleted their food stocks and are dependent on market purchases. Increased market demand, along with low market supply, has caused staple food prices to rise to levels well above last year (18-40 percent) and the 5-year average (20-59 percent). Given that wages from casual labor, the most important economic activity for the poor, have remained at normal levels, the increasing food prices have caused purchasing power to decline and are expected to reduce food access. As a result, more households are engaging in negative coping strategies, such as switching to cheaper foods or reducing the number of meals they consume per day. The season 'C' harvest (September through December in marshland areas) is still ongoing, yet it only makes up about 15 percent of Burundi's total crop production and is not expected to offset the effects of the low household food stocks.

Due to the combined effects of below-average food stocks and above-average prices, most households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through the end of the year. When the season 'A' harvests occur (late December to January in most areas, slightly later in regions where planting activities were delayed), households and markets will replenish their stocks, market demand for food staples will be reduced, and food prices will decline. Households with landholdings will then rely on their own food stocks and poor, landless households will be able to access food via market purchases. From January through March 2013, most households are expected to be food secure (IPC Phase 1).

Dépressions de l’Est, high humid mountainous zones, rural integrated villages, and refugee camps

Returnees from the Mtabila refugee camp in Tanzania, which is scheduled to close December 31, have started reentering Burundi. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, 16,760 people have returned since October 31, and a total of approximately 37,000 returnees are expected in the upcoming months. Until these returnees, as well as refugees from other countries living within Burundi, are able to rebuild their livelihoods, they will likely face difficulties accessing basic food needs.

Poor households in the Dépressions de l’Est and high humid mountainous zones have been most greatly impacted by the poor season 'B' harvests. In the high humid mountainous zones, poor households are particularly vulnerable to shocks, due to the poor soils, high population densities, and very small landholdings which characterize these zones. In the Dépressions de l’Est, crop disease damage was particularly high during season 'B' and negatively impacted food stocks.

Poor households in the Dépressions de l'Est and high humid mountainous zones, as well as refugees and returnees, will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the harvests in late December. Then these households will also be food secure (IPC Phase 1).