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Season B planting is almost complete, rainfall at slightly above average levels

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Burundi
  • March 2014
Season B planting is almost complete, rainfall at slightly above average levels

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Planting of beans, maize, Irish potato and sorghum for Season B 2014 is almost complete with slightly above-average rainfall in February.
    • From now through June, households in most livelihood zones will experience Minimal food insecurity except the Plateaux Humides zone which is currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until Season B harvests in June.
    • Prices of the main staple commodities generally stabilized in February compared to January. However, in Ngozi, a key market in the Plateaux Humides livelihood zone, sweet potato prices increased in February by 28 percent compared to last month and 88, and 101 percent compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively.

     

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    Staple food prices increased unseasonably in the Plateaux Humides livelihood zone as a result of below-average Season A harvests.

    Staple food prices are expected to continue increasing at a faster rate than normal in Plateaux Humides until June when Season B harvests become available.

     

     

    Projected Outlook through June 2014

    Poor rainfall in the Plateaux Humides livelihood zone caused Season A production shortfalls. As a result of a 30 percent production deficit in this area, households are unable to meet food needs from their own stocks. Season B 2014 planting is nearly complete. Current rainfall ranges between 10 and 25 percent above-average levels. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecasts indicate near-normal March to May rainfall. Additionally, the Institut Géographique du Burundi (IGEBU) also predicts normal rainfall with above normal tendency in most parts of the country. Normal Season B harvests are expected in June.

    Prices of the main staple commodities generally stabilized in February compared to January. However, in Ngozi, a key market in the Plateaux Humides, sweet potato prices increased in February by 28 percent compared to last month and 88, and 101 percent compared to last year and the five-year average, respectively.  In addition to below-average rainfall that affected Season A harvests, this increase is likely due to seedling deficits following poor Season C 2013 performance.  Despite price increases, sweet potato remains the least expensive staple food and preferred by poor households. Bean prices in Ngozi increased by 11 percent since January and 4 percent and 17 percent compared to last year and the five-year average. In Bujumbura, February sweet potato prices remained stable and decreased by 23 percent compared to last year and 13 percent compared to the five-year average. Bean prices remained stable in Bujumbura through February and decreased by 11 percent compared to last year. Cassava prices are also stable in Bujumbura but 12 percent higher than the five-year average in Ngozi. 

    Market purchase is the main source of food when household stocks run out during the March to May minor lean season. Higher staple food prices in Plateaux Humides will reduce the purchasing power of poor households. Because poor households in this area have very limited assets and few labor opportunities, they are particularly vulnerable to price variability and have a lower capacity to respond to shocks than better off households.  Households in provinces bordering Tanzania will face income deficits as the usual February to March cross-border labor migration is no longer permitted by the Tanzanian government.

    Most households in the country face Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), except poor households in the Plateaux Humides zone who are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until June 2014, when Season B harvests will be available.

    Figures seasonal calendar

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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