Insecurity and displacement is disrupting Season B harvests in some areas

• Election-related civil unrest continues to drive large-scale population outflow from Burundi. As of the end of June, nearly 144,000 people have fled Burundi to neighboring countries. Humanitarian agencies project the Burundian refugee population will reach 250,000 by September.

• Season B harvests are underway country-wide and production on the national level is expected to be average due to normal to above-normal February to May rainfall. Insecurity and displacement, in Kirundo, Muyinga, and Ngozi provinces in the north and northeast of the country will likely disrupt harvests in these areas.  

• Staple food prices either declined or remained stable in most markets in June due to increased food availability and supply from Season B harvests.  However, prices remain much higher than the five-year average.

Significant population outflow from Burundi continues due to election-related civil unrest and political instability. As of June 29, the UNHCR reported an estimated 143,658 people have fled Burundi since April 2015 mainly to Tanzania (66,612) and Rwanda (56,508). According to UN contingency plans, an additional 100,000 Burundians are expected to migrate to neighboring countries in the next three months.  Most refugees rely on humanitarian assistance to meet essential food and non-food needs.  

Season B harvests are underway country-wide. National Season B production is expected to be average due to normal to above-normal February to May rainfall, especially in highland areas bordering Rwanda and Southern Highland Livelihood zones. Beans, maize, sweet potatoes and bananas are the major crops produced in these areas. Information on harvesting at the sub-national level is unavailable, however, disruptions in agricultural activities are likely in areas worst-affected by insecurity and displacement, particularly in Kirundo, Muyinga, and Ngozi provinces in the north and northeast of the country. These areas have been identified as areas of greatest concern based on findings of a recent multi-agency needs assessment.

Staple food prices either declined or remained stable in most markets in June due to increased food availability and supply from Season B harvests.  However, prices remain much higher than the five-year average. Beans prices, for example, are nearly 45 percent above the five-year average in Bujumbura and Ngozi markets. In Muyinga market, a key market in the northeast, cassava flour prices are 26 percent above the five-year average. Poor households in the affected areas will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity which is expected to last through September. Households in most other livelihood zones face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity due to average Season A and Season B harvests. 

Currently, households in most livelihood zones face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity due to average and above-average Season A harvests.  However, poor households in the Plateaux Humides Livelihood Zone, will continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity until Season B harvests in June due to above-average staple food prices during the lean season. Given expectations that the election crisis and related violence will continue with increasing unrest in rural areas, security related disruptions to harvesting, access to markets, and labor opportunities are expected cause a decline in access to food and income for poor households. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is likely, particularly in areas of concern.