Emerging La Niña expected to limit Season A production

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Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zones through January 2026, driven by below-average food stocks from the locally unfavorable 2025 Season B harvest, restricted cross-border access to Rwanda, seasonal increases in food prices, and reduced labor opportunities and income. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are also expected to extend into the Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones during the lean season (October 2025-January 2026), driven by restricted opportunity in Imbo Plains for cross-border trade in Democratic Republic of Congo, an atypical reliance on market purchases due to the depletion of household food stocks from Season B harvests, rising staple food prices, and below-average income-generating opportunities, all of which are constraining households’ ability to purchase food. International forecasts suggest La Niña conditions are expected to emerge during the October-December rains, likely resulting in below-average rainfall and negatively impacting Season A crop production during the projection period.
Staple food prices seasonally stabilized in August but remain well above the five-year average amid poor economic conditions. Countrywide, food stocks from the near-average 2025 Season B harvest helped stabilize staple food prices in August compared to July and the same time last year. However, food prices remain elevated at 30 to 100 percent above the five-year average across Burundi, caused partially by increased costs of agricultural inputs and labor, which are 60 percent higher than last year. Ongoing fuel shortages and rising transportation costs also continue to drive increased prices. In addition, limited foreign currency availability has constrained imports via the parallel market, driving persistent inflation. Despite seasonal price stabilization, the elevated prices for food and non-food essentials continue to limit household purchasing capacity and constrain financial access to food for poor households.
Below-average rainfall from September to December is expected to lead to below-average 2026 Season A production. Season A planting has been delayed as farmers wait for the rain to begin. La Niña conditions are expected to emerge during the October-December rainy season, resulting in likely below-average rainfall countrywide. This will particularly affect the semi-arid Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones, where the warmer temperatures will exacerbate the below-average water availability, causing additional water stress for crops. The late sowing and shortage of water will likely drive below-average Season A crop production, as well as fewer agricultural labor opportunities than normal for poor households, followed by below-average food availability at the end of the projection period. In and around marshland regions, the worst effects of the lean season will be partially mitigated by above-average Season C production, which accounts for 15 percent of annual production and benefited from atypical rainfall in August, which is normally dry.
According to the WFP, in August 2025, food assistance was delivered to approximately 76,000 refugees from the DRC, 1,700 Burundian returnees (mainly from the DRC), 5,000 flood-displaced persons in the west, and 21,000 individuals affected by rainfall deficits in the north. Due to funding constraints and an increase in unexpected new arrivals since early 2025, refugees have been receiving only 50 percent of their minimum daily kilocaloric (kcal) requirement (2,100 kcal/person/day) since March. However, WFP plans to gradually increase rations to 75 percent between December 2025 and March 2026, contingent on newly confirmed funding. In August, WFP also distributed specialized nutritious food to 14,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls, as well as 21,000 children across seven provinces.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Burundi Key Message Update September 2025: Emerging La Niña expected to limit Season A production, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.