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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in Northern Lowlands due to increased fuel prices

  • Key Message Update
  • Burundi
  • September 2023
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in Northern Lowlands due to increased fuel prices

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January, in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones due to diminished food stocks from the 2023 Season B harvest, coupled with increased food prices and restricted cross-border activities with Tanzania and Rwanda. From October to January, outcomes are expected to worsen to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the Northern Lowlands. However, central and western regions are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to near-average Season B production and average income access.
    • In mid-September, fuel prices increased substantially by around 35 percent. This represents an almost 40 percent increase compared to July and a 65 percent rise compared to the previous year’s prices. The inflation rate has remained high since early in the year, reaching around 30 percent in August. Despite the current economic challenges, the near-average 2023 Season B harvest played a role in stabilizing staple food prices in September. However, staple food prices remained significantly elevated, ranging from 30 to 75 percent above the previous year’s prices and 80 to 120 percent above the five-year average. This surge in food prices is attributed to regional inflation, increased costs associated with agricultural inputs, and elevated fuel and food transportation costs.
    • The rainfall in September had a positive impact, enhancing soil moisture and creating favorable conditions for an above-average 2023 Season C expected in November. This positive outcome is further supported by an expanded cropped area, attributed to increased support from the government and partners. This assistance includes initiatives such as the promotion of irrigation systems and subsidies for fertilizers and improved maize seeds. The timely onset of the small rains in September supported typical land preparation and sowing activities for the upcoming 2024 Season A. Despite a nearly 10 percent increase in fertilizer prices in September, the government's commitment to subsidizing fertilizer and maize seeds is expected to incentivize farmers to make additional investments in the upcoming season. This combination of favorable weather conditions and supportive measures is likely to contribute to enhanced agricultural performance in the region.
    • According to WFP, funding shortfalls resulted in around 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers receiving about 70 percent of their usual food ration. These households are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through January, with the assistance preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. Approximately 6,300 individuals who have returned to their homes have been provided with a full ration, inclusive of hot meals during their stay in transit centers, along with a three-month package to support their reintegration. Furthermore, humanitarian support has been extended to over 22,000 individuals who have been affected by climatic and socioeconomic shocks in Ngozi, Kirundo, Muyinga, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura. This assistance is being delivered through a combination of in-kind and cash transfers, covering 100 percent of their caloric needs. These efforts are mitigating the impact of shocks in these areas and improving the food security situation of the affected population.

    Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Burundi Key Message update, July 2023. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in Northern Lowlands due to increased fuel prices, 2023.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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