Key Message Update

As the lean season approaches, the 2021 B season harvests drive food price stability in September

September 2021

September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food stocks from above-average 2021 B Season crop production, coupled with stable food prices are supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes across most of Burundi in September (FSMS, August 2021). In the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone, the Tanzanian border closure continues to reduce income earning opportunities from cross border labor activities as households’ dependence on market purchases increases with the onset of the lean season. As a result, household purchasing power will reduce with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated throughout the outlook period in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone.

  • A resurgence of COVID-19 cases has been reported since the end of July 2021, some weeks after the confirmation of the Delta variant in Burundi. Active cases on 26 September increased 47 and 168 percent compared to 26 August and 26 July, respectively. The increase in COVID-19 cases is expected to delay the re-opening of the Tanzanian and Rwandan borders, maintaining below-average income sources for poor and very poor households in the Eastern and Northern livelihood zones relying on cross-border labor opportunities.

  • Above-average 2021 B Season crop production drove staple food price stability in August for cereals (maize and rice) and legumes (beans). Cereal prices are stable compared to last year and average. Bean prices decreased 15 percent compared to last year and increased slightly compared to the average. However, tuber (cassava and sweet potato) prices increased between 15 and 30 percent compared to last year and the average.

  • Since September 2017, UNHCR facilitated the return of around 174,990 individuals, 75 percent of which arrived from Tanzania and are largely hosted in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone. Upon arrival, returnees receive three months of assistance, around 20,000 returnees who came between July and September still have food assistance stocks, driving None! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. None! IPC Phase 1! outcomes are also observed for 50,000 DRC refugees hosted in camps within Burundi. However, around 52,000 returnees who arrived between December 2020 and June 2021 have already exhausted their 90 days of assistance and are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food outcomes in September.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics