Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Most poor and very poor households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes with average ongoing 2021 C Season production, stocks from 2021 B Season and some wild vegetables from 2022 A Season. However, in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. Despite the decrease in COVID-19 cases by more than 80 percent compared October, measures to restrict cross-border movement persist, reducing food and income sources for nearly 40 percent of the communities living in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones. These households depend heavily on crop production and labor income from Tanzania and are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the lean period. In addition, domestic agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities remain below average, negatively affecting household incomes. Below-average incomes restrict food access while prices are five to 10 percent above average.

• Erratic and below-average rainfall during the October to November sowing period is adversely affecting 2022 A Season performance. Recent rains have slightly improved soil moisture but remain insufficient for maize and bean crop development in Imbo Plains, Eastern and Northern Lowlands. NDVI data indicates that vegetation conditions are below average across the country in general, but significantly below average in the lowland areas, leading to below average 2022 A Season crop production expected in February 2022.

• The Burundian government, in collaboration with the humanitarian community, continues to provide three months of food aid to approximately 7,000 returnees, supporting None! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes until January. 51,000 Congolese refugees accommodated in camps receive continuous monthly assistance and are also likely to face None! (IPC Phase 1!). However, while the measure to restrict the import of maize persists, and food prices increased five percent compared to the average, the local market cannot supply the quantities needed to cover the necessary needs, a pipeline break is likely from January and that situation could lead to a reduction in daily rations, forcing them to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The remaining 31,500 urban refugees are unassisted but able to meet their basic food needs through remittances and some wage labor and are likely facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In addition, the pipeline break will also likely impact local communities located in Imbo Plains affected by natural disasters who are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to lack of assistance beginning in January 2022.