Conflict in Middle East disrupts oil, fertilizers, and exports

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The Northern and Eastern Lowlands and the Imbo Plains are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions, which are expected to continue through at least September. Below-average Season A harvests — caused by delayed and insufficient rainfall between October-December 2025 — combined with persistently high food prices, are driving reduced food access. Reduced cross-border trade with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the continued closure of the border with Rwanda are limiting trade and labor opportunities for households in the Imbo Plains and Northern Lowlands, leaving households highly dependent on markets for food but in a context of limited income and elevated prices, resulting in constrained food access. The populations of highest concern are the approximately 200,000 refugees and recently returned Burundians, located primarily in Eastern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus, who lack access to typical livelihoods, and households in Northern Lowlands affected by severe Season A crop loss. Pockets of these refugee and returnee households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Due to delayed and below-average rainfall throughout much of the September-December short rains season, the January-February 2026 Season A harvest was well below average. Areas that rely heavily on bean production during Season A are the most affected — most notably the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, followed by the Imbo Plains and the Eastern Dry Plateaus — as beans are particularly sensitive to water shortages. A rapid assessment in February by the National Platform for Disaster Risk Prevention and Management and UN agencies across Busoni and Kirundo in the Northern Lowlands zone found that households in those areas experienced bean losses ranging from 80-100 percent, maize losses of 50-100 percent, and sorghum losses of 40-60 percent, with 239,600 people severely affected by the crop losses.
Staple food prices remain mixed but above five-year averages. Food availability remains constrained overall due to depleted Season B stocks and weak Season A harvests, despite slight improvements in February due to green maize and Season A beans. Prices followed typical seasonal trends and remained broadly consistent with prices at the same time last year, ranging from about 5 percent below to 10 percent above for most staples; however, prices remain 20-80 percent above the five-year average. Rice prices remain particularly high — around 30 percent above last year and 80 percent above the five-year average, amid insufficient domestic production. Multiple factors are sustaining the price elevations, including high demand due to recent large influxes of refugees and returnees; high input and fuel costs, which increase the cost of bringing food to market; and currency depreciation and reduced cross-border trade, both of which are constraining food imports.
The conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt nearly 40 percent of Burundi’s export market, as well as imports of key inputs such as oil and fertilizers. This is expected to worsen the existing fuel shortage and further increase prices. According to Burundi National Bureau of Statistics (INSBU) data for 2023, exports to Gulf countries constituted 37 percent of all Burundian exports, most of which were to the United Arab Emirates and consisted primarily of minerals, tea, and coffee. While Burundian suppliers may be able to find new markets for these products (which are largely shelf-stable and can be stored until new markets are identified), Burundi will remain exposed to market effects and supply shortages of items that it imports from the Gulf. Goods from Gulf countries accounted for 31 percent of Burundi’s total imports, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and consisted primarily of petroleum products (about 83 percent) and fertilizers (about 15 percent).
More than 33,000 Congolese refugees returned from Burundi to eastern DRC since the reopening of the Burundi–DRC border on February 23, mainly through the Kavimvira border point, bringing the total number of refugees in Burundi from approximately 230,000 as of mid-February 2026 to around 200,000. These returns are largely spurred by reduced humanitarian assistance in Burundi due to funding shortages, prompting many refugees to return to the DRC despite persistent uncertainty and fragile conditions in their areas of origin.
The March 18 tripartite meeting between the Burundi government, UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and WFP confirmed each party’s commitment to accelerate the repatriation of Burundian refugees. The UNHCR provided updates on the plan to support the return of around 93,000 refugees from Tanzania between December 2025 and June 2026, many of whom are required to leave Nyarugusu and Nduta camps. At the time of the meeting, however, the Tanzanian government had already dismantled approximately 85 percent of Nduta camp, despite remaining partially occupied by Burundian refugees. While Nduta camp was initially expected to close by the end of March, its closure has been postponed to May, whereas Nyarugusu camp is scheduled to close by the end of June. Most returnees are expected to resettle in eastern Burundi, particularly in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone. The planned scale-up of convoy movements from 3,000 to 5,000 returnees per week reflects efforts to expedite returns. In February, UNCHR facilitated the return of 24,000 returnees; nearly twice the number recorded in January.
In February 2026, WFP assisted approximately 161,000 refugees, including 82,000 new arrivals recorded in December 2025, as well as 24,000 returning Burundians who arrived in February from Tanzania; however, funding shortfalls are forcing revisions in assistance. Refugees continue to receive 75 percent of minimum daily food requirements in the form of hybrid assistance (food and cash), up from 50 percent in March-November 2025, but down from 100 percent prior. Food assistance to households affected by weather shocks has been suspended as of February, as well as to children and pregnant and breastfeeding women everywhere except in Musenyi refugee camp. Starting in March, returnee rations will be reduced by 50 percent, covering 45 days of food needs instead of 90. While assistance continues to reach nearly all refugees in the camps, rising caseloads for social services, funding gaps, increased disease risk due to overcrowding, and service constraints are increasing the risk of deteriorating food security and nutrition outcomes.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Burundi Key Message Update March - September 2026: Conflict in Middle East disrupts oil, fertilizers, and exports, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.