Higher food availability and lower staple food prices improve food access

With the exception of localized areas, such as in Bubanza Province where rainfall was low and poorly distributed, Season B crop production was average to above average. Increased food availability and falling staple food prices are expected to move some poor households to None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, but the majority are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) ahead of the September lean season. By November, when food stocks are nearly depleted, the number of poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is likely to increase in a few areas with particularly limited income opportunities, including Bubanza, Cibitoke, Kirundo, and Muyinga provinces.

While falling, staple food prices in June remain above the five-year average, largely due to the macroeconomic situation. Increased demand for labor at harvesting time caused daily salaries to increase, thus temporarily improving the rural poors’ purchasing power. Recurring fuel shortages have led to higher transportation costs, which have caused price fluctuations. For example, a June shortage that has now been resolved, led to approximately an 11 percent increase in bean prices in Kirundo from May to early July.

As of July 10, UNHCR estimated the number of Burundian refugees in the region at 415,968. With improving security in Burundi and the Government of Tanzania’s decision to vet individual asylum seekers, the number of people fleeing Burundi fell from about 23,500 per month in the first quarter to about 3,700 per month in the second quarter of 2017. Internal displacement reportedly continues to rise, but the reasons for displacement are multiple and are likely more economic than security-related.