More refugees returning due to improving civil and food security in Burundi

Rains have been above average in January, ending the December dry spell, which is likely to lead to average Season 2018A harvests, already underway. Most poor households are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2); however, in Gihanga Commune in Bubanza Province, maize production is likely to be below average due to a more severe dry spell and Fall Armyworm infestations, causing some poor households to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the lean season in May. 

As household and commercial stocks replenished with the initial harvest, staple food prices seasonally eased in January. Despite this decline, the overall prices of staples are likely to remain above five-year averages through May given the ongoing macroeconomic difficulties (low foreign currency reserves and a deteriorating national currency), limiting regional food imports and, occasionally, disrupting fuel imports.  

Largely due to improved civil and food security, the number of IDPs, estimated at 180,000 by IOM, continues to decrease. The number of voluntary returnees from Tanzania refugee camps exceeded 11,000 from September to December 2017, and approximately 60,000 more are expected in 2018. WFP provides all returnees with three-months of rations to facilitate their transition. These trends may reverse if political violence flares up again in Burundi, following successive breakdowns in peace talks.