Some poor households in eastern areas likely to face Crisis outcomes in March

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist across Burundi, but some poor households in Cankuzo, Kirundo, Muyinga, Rutana, and Ruyigi will move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in March, following a below-average season, as household food stocks are expected to deplete earlier, amidst eroded purchasing capacities, constraining food access. Cumulative Season A rainfall was 15-20 percent below average across the country, with marked deficits in eastern areas that were flood-affected during Season B. Continued insecurity also limited cultivation and constrained access to agricultural inputs in localized areas in Rumonge, Bujumbura Rural, Muyinga, Kirundo, and Makamba provinces.

Food prices have remained higher than normal into mid-January, limiting poor household food access. Retail maize prices were 42 and 19 percent higher in December compared to November in Muyinga and Ruyigi markets, respectively, while bean prices were 16-22 percent higher. Although Burundi is a net importer of key grains and cereals, national import capacities are highly constrained by the lack of foreign exchange, attributable to persistent macroeconomic disruptions since April 2015, putting additional pressure on prices.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of January 15, about 355,790 Burundian refugees were in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania, an increase of 28,000 people since December 31. The Humanitarian Information Unit has indicated that as of December 19, there were also about 110,000 internally displaced Burundi nationals throughout the country, who in addition to refugees, face severe funding gaps amounting to about 52 percent of total needs.