Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in north, east, and west due to La Niña

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains during the lean period of October to December 2025. Exhaustion of household food stocks and greater dependence on market purchases, coupled with rising food prices and limited income opportunities, are undermining food access in these areas during the October to December 2025 lean season. This is exacerbated by atypically low agricultural labor opportunities linked to below-average rainfall during the October to December rainy season, restricted access to cross-border opportunities in the north due to the ongoing closure of the Rwandan border, and similarly limited cross-border opportunities in the west caused due to  the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to persist in the east, north, and west during the post-harvest period from February to May 2026. Given the anticipated below-average 2026 Season A crop production, household food stocks are expected to be atypically low and deplete earlier than is typical, maintaining below-average food access for poor and very poor households that are already facing rising food prices and diminished agricultural labor opportunities.
• Below-average rainfall from September to December 2025, consistent with La Niña forecasts for the September–December period, has delayed the start of 2026 Season A. Land preparation, which typically concludes by mid-September and with planting finalized by mid-October, was still ongoing at the end of October — particularly in the semi-arid Northern and Eastern Lowlands and the Imbo Plains livelihood zones.
• FEWS NET estimates that 500,000-749,999 people will likely require urgent humanitarian assistance, with needs expected to peak from October to December 2025. The populations of highest concern include refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundian returnees who have exhausted the three-month food assistance received upon arrival, flood-displaced IDPs, and poor households in parts of the northern, eastern, and western regions, which are anticipated to be particularly affected by La Niña-induced below-average labor opportunities and 2026 Season A crop shortages.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2025.  

Burundi is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, with a population of approximately 12.3 million people, nearly 86 percent of whom engage in smallholder agriculture. With this high population density of 480 inhabitants per square kilometer (km2), land availability is limited. As of 2018, the average household farm plot was found to be 0.71 hectares, limiting overall household production potential even in seasons of high yield. Household food production is vulnerable to weather hazards, especially in the semi-arid livelihood zones of the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, where lower water availability hampers farming efforts. Delayed rainfall or dry spells significantly reduce crop yields, and the degradation of natural resources — including landslides, soil erosion, and loss of soil fertility — compounds these challenges.

The annual agricultural cycle consists of three seasons (A, B, and C). Seasons A and B, accounting for 35 and 50 percent of annual production, respectively, align with the bimodal rainy seasons. Season A production is driven by the short rainy season from October to December, while Season B aligns with the long rainy season from February to May. Lean seasons typically occur in October to November and March to April in the lead-up to the respective harvest periods, during which time households are running low on food stocks from the previous season while awaiting the new season’s harvest. Season C, planted during the dry season from June to July and harvested in September, supplies just 15 percent of national production, and is localized to marshland areas where the flow of water from higher-altitude areas makes up for the lack of rainfall. Though acute food insecurity in Burundi is typically less severe than in many other geographies in East and Southern Africa, the country has a high prevalence of chronic food insecurity. According to UNICEF, more than half of children in Burundi are stunted, indicative of chronic malnutrition caused by cumulative and long-term poor dietary diversity, inadequate healthcare services, and frequent disease outbreaks. 

Burundi's economy is among the least developed in the world and is characterized by high rates of poverty and unemployment, limited industrialization, and poor infrastructure. The country's economy is heavily reliant on rainfed agriculture, which is susceptible to weather variations and environmental degradation. Agricultural day labor is the main source of income for poor and very poor households, who constitute about 55 percent of the total population. High inflation further diminishes households' purchasing capacity, making it difficult for many poor households to access sufficient food. Ongoing shortages of both foreign currency and fuel have driven a decline in Burundian capacity to export cash crops and minerals, as well as a decline in imports of staple foods and non-food essentials, driving increased prices within the country. 

Since 2024, the conflict in neighboring DRC has driven an influx of refugees into Burundi. As of August 2025, the UN has recorded at least 160,000 Congolese refugees in the country. In 2015, Burundi faced a major political crisis and instability following the presidential term extension. The resulting unrest led to a period of political instability and violence, displacing hundreds of thousands of people to neighboring countries. Since 2017, nearly 250,000 people were repatriated, and returns continue with the support of the government, the UN, and humanitarian agencies. Additionally, every year, localized floods and landslides, particularly in the provinces abutting Lake Tanganyika, temporarily internally displacing some households. As of August 2025, the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) was estimated at approximately 90,000 people. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information:

• Latest Burundi Food Security Outlook: October 2024 to May 2025
• Latest Burundi Key Message Update: September 2025
• Overview of FEWS NET's scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET's approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET's approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Localized below-average rainfall in early 2025 resulted in poor crop production and reduced food stocks in the east, north and west: Food access between June and December is largely dependent on the performance of Season B and income access, but localized below-average rainfall in early 2025 resulted in poor crop production and therefore reduced food stocks, as well as income from agricultural labor and crop sales, in the east, north and west. Findings from the Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS/WFP) in August indicate that around 50 percent of households in these regions are expected to exhaust their food stocks by October and will rely entirely on market purchases to access food (Figure 1).

Delayed and below-average September-December rainfall: Typically beginning in mid-September, the short rains remained insufficient through October, with the semi-arid regions in the east, north, and west most severely affected. This rainfall deficit has delayed land preparation and planting for the 2026 Season A crops, leading to below-average agricultural labor opportunities and income. The impact is particularly significant for poor and very poor households (approximately 40 percent of the population) for whom agricultural labor is the main source of income.

Economic conditions: Low export capacity remains a key driver behind worsening macroeconomic indicators, such as the growing trade deficit, rising external debt, and declining foreign currency reserves. Limited availability of foreign currency and depreciation of the BIF continues to restrict the import of food and non-food items, leading to higher prices for essential imported goods and contributing to below-average petty trade activities along the borders, exacerbated by border closures with Rwanda and DRC.  

• With official exchange rates lagging up to 150 percent behind those of the parallel market, traders are increasingly relying on informal currency exchange to finance imports. This dependence on the parallel market is further contributing to rising prices of staple foods and other essential commodities.  
• Depreciation of the BIF against neighboring currencies has created a financial incentive for traders to conduct business in surrounding countries, driving reduced import volumes and increased unofficial exports of staple foods to Rwanda and Tanzania.  
• The challenging macroeconomic conditions contribute to a high poverty rate and the country’s ranking second-poorest globally.  

Fuel shortage: The shortage of foreign currency continues to drive volatility in fuel supply. Trucks are forced to travel long distances to neighboring DRC and Tanzania to refuel, or fuel through unofficial markets four times above the standard price. This significantly raises transportation expenses, driving higher prices for food and non-food items while also reducing petty trade and income-earning opportunities. The mobility constraints limit capacity to transport crops to markets, causing produce to be sold primarily in nearby markets. This is leading to localized price drops in areas of high production and surging prices in deficit-producing areas.

Above-average food prices: Despite improvements in stability compared to last year (Figure 2), in September, staple food prices were still 40 to 120 percent higher than the five-year average. The inflation is driven by rising costs for agricultural inputs, exceptionally high transportation expenses due to the ongoing fuel shortage, and atypical staple food exports to Tanzania reducing domestic supply. Prices still reflect typical seasonal patterns but are elevated above the five-year seasonal average.

Conflict and political tensions:

• The war in the east of the DRC has displaced civilians, spurring around 160,000 refugees and asylum seekers to seek safety in Burundi. Most refugees are being hosted in refugee camps distributed across the east and north of Burundi, with a large population also remaining in urban areas in the west along the border with DRC. The conflict in eastern DRC has restricted access to cross-border opportunities for labor and trade — particularly impacting households in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone.
• Due to political tension between Burundi and Rwanda, both countries decided to close their border, restricting the movement of people and the flow of food and non-food items. This closure has reduced access to income from cross-border opportunities for both labor and petty trade, affecting mostly the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone.

Burundian returnees — more than 235,000 of whom have arrived since 2017 and are mostly settled in eastern and northern provinces — remain a relatively small yet notable population. According to UNHCR, about 75 percent of returnees have regained access to their land, however, restoring livelihoods typically takes at least two years.

Humanitarian food assistance

According to the WFP, in September 2025, food and cash assistance was delivered to approximately 76,000 refugees from the DRC, 1,200 Burundian returnees (mainly from the DRC), and 5,000 flood-displaced persons in the west. Due to funding constraints and an increase in new arrivals since early 2025, refugees have been receiving only 50 percent of their minimum daily kilocalorie (kcal) requirement (2,100 kcal/person/day) since March. With new funding through March, WFP plans to increase rations to 75 percent between December 2025 and March 2026. Assistance after March will be contingent on funding. 

October-January rainfall: The October-December rainy season, which drives Season A production, is expected to be below-average across most of the country, particularly affecting the semi-arid areas of the Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones, driven by La Niña conditions.

Temperature: Countrywide, temperatures are expected to be above-average by 0.25-0.5 degrees Celsius through October-December 2025.

February-May rainfall: Near-neutral ENSO conditions projected from January to May 2026 are expected to bring near-average rainfall across the country starting in February, driving near-average totals for the Season B rainy season in March-May.

Floods: The forecasted near-average Season B rainfall, in combination with the already elevated water table, is likely to cause flooding in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, with a peak expected in May. Expected floods are likely to increase the number of IDPs from the current number of 93,000.

Crop production:  

• 2025 Season C crop production (October through November, occurring in the marshland areas) is expected to be above average. 
• 2026 Season A January harvest is expected to be below average countrywide following below-average October-December rainfall and nationally below-average soil moisture due to high temperatures at the end of 2025. Beans, sensitive to water stress and commonly cultivated in lowland areas during season A, are likely to be the most affected. However, government support for improved availability of fertilizers and select maize seeds subsidized at 60 percent is expected to help minimize losses.
• 2026 Season B crop production is expected to be near average nationally, supported by forecasted near-average rainfall from February to May 2026. However, anticipated flooding in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone is likely to result in localized reduced crop production.

Soil moisture: Reduced soil moisture is anticipated in the semi-arid areas of the Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones, as well as below-average soil moisture nationally.

Income from labor: Labor income is projected to remain below average from October 2025 to January 2026, driven by below-average agricultural activity due to forecasted below-average rainfall and soil moisture, as well as limited access to cross-border opportunities in the north and west. However, from February to May, the near-average rains are expected to drive average agricultural activity, which will likely boost labor opportunities, resulting in near-average income for poor households.  

Inflation: Headline and food inflation, which have remained around 40 percent month-on-month since January 2025, are expected to stay high and peak during the October 2025 to January 2026 lean season. Inflation is still expected to hover around 40 percent through May 2026.

Macroeconomic indicators: The continued limited export capacity and increasing reliance on imports are expected to drive further deterioration of key macroeconomic indicators throughout the projection period, including widening the trade deficit, increasing external debt, reducing foreign currency reserves, and heightening reliance on loans.

Fuel and diesel availability: Fuel and diesel shortages are projected to continue throughout the projection period, with limited supplies likely sourced from the informal market at prices two to three times above average.

Staple food prices: Staple food prices are similar to last year, remaining above the five-year average throughout the projection period (Figures 3 and 4). In addition to seasonal price increases through December, atypical food exports to neighboring countries — driven by the weak BIF — are expected to persist. Fuel shortages, rising transportation costs, and limited access to foreign currency are constraining imports through the parallel market and are expected to further increase food and essential non-food item prices.

Repatriation: Between August and January 2026, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is likely to facilitate the return of 21,000 out of approximately 250,000 Burundian refugees in neighboring countries. Most of the returnees are expected to resettle in eastern, northern, and southern Burundi.  

Conflict and security: The conflict in eastern DRC and political tension between Rwanda and Burundi are likely to reduce cross-border trade opportunities, reducing income in the Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones. Fighting in eastern DRC is expected to persist and drive a continued flow of refugees into Burundi – estimated at the end of August 2025 to be around 108,000 – even higher during the projected period.  

Humanitarian food assistance:

According to WFP, humanitarian food assistance for refugees will remain limited to 50 percent rations through November, with a gradual increase to 75 percent planned between December 2025 and March 2026, due to newly confirmed funding through March 2026.  Nutrition assistance for malnourished individuals is also set to end in December unless additional resources are secured. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future.  
FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. 

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.  
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.  
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.