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Persistent high food and fuel prices driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the north

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Burundi
  • October 2023 - May 2024
Persistent high food and fuel prices driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the north

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
  • Areas of Concern Northern Lowlands livelihood zone (Figure 6)
  • Key Messages
    • The Northern Lowlands livelihood zone is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes from October to December, driven by the rapid depletion of 2023 Season B food stocks, exceptional increases in food prices, elevated fuel prices, restricted access to cross-border opportunities, and notably low labor wages. Concurrently, the Eastern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions during the same period. This is driven by the characteristic lean period marked by surges in food prices and constrained access to cross-border opportunities.

    • Burundi’s inflation rate, hovering around 30 percent as of August, and the annual depreciation of the Burundi Franc (BIF) at a rate of 10 percent are causing high food prices. Furthermore, the parallel market registers between 75 and 100 percent higher than the official market. The persistent trade balance deficit, ranging between 15 and 25 percent annually, further adds to the complexity of the economic situation. These factors are resulting in elevated prices for imported goods; for instance, in the case of fuel, there have been three price hikes since the beginning of the year, with the most recent increase, in early October, raising the price to 4,550 BIF per liter (about 6 USD/gallon). This represents an increase of 40 percent compared to July and nearly 70 percent compared to the same period last year.

    • Despite ongoing economic challenges, the near-average 2023 Season B harvest helped stabilize staple food prices in September. However, prices remain significantly high, ranging from 30 to 75 percent above last year and 80 to 120 percent above the five-year average. The food basket price has increased by 50 percent compared to the five-year average and around 30 percent compared to the previous year. These price surges are attributed to higher costs of imported food due to national inflation, increased expenses for agricultural inputs, and elevated fuel and transportation costs.

    • The timely onset of the short rains season allowed a normal start of 2024 Season A. According to international weather forecasts, above-average rainfall is anticipated from October to December 2023 due to the projected occurrence of El Niño. The above-average precipitation is likely to result in localized flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone and along major rivers. 

    • According to WFP, funding shortfalls resulted in around 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers receiving about 70 percent of their usual food ration. This shortage in food assistance is likely to contribute to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes among these households until January 2024. Approximately 6,300 individuals who have returned to their homes have been provided with a full ration, inclusive of hot meals during their stay in transit centers, along with a three-month package to support their reintegration. The humanitarian assistance has been extended to over 22,000 individuals who have been affected by climatic and socioeconomic shocks in Ngozi, Kirundo, Muyinga, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura through a combination of in-kind and cash transfers, covering 100 percent of their caloric needs.


    National Overview

    Current Situation

    Agricultural production: The lean season is currently underway in Burundi, starting from October to December. With food stocks depleted after the near-average 2023 Season B production, many poor households are relying on markets to secure food. They are also grappling with substantial expenses associated with repaying agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and labor expenses for Season A planting conducted in September and October. In the current year, households are facing high food prices and below-average incomes, particularly in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones.

    Season C crop production represents 15 percent of the annual crop production and provides food stocks for about three weeks between October and December to around 45 percent of the total population possessing marshland plots. The rainfall in September had a positive impact, enhancing soil moisture and creating favorable conditions for the expected above-average 2023 Season C. This positive outcome is further supported by an expanded cropped area, attributed to increased support from the government and partners. This support includes initiatives such as the promotion of irrigation systems and subsidies for fertilizers at 60 percent and improved maize seeds for 50 percent of the normal prices. 

    Despite a nearly 10 percent increase in fertilizer prices observed in September, the government’s commitment to subsidizing fertilizer and maize seeds, along with rising food prices, is expected to incentivize farmers to make additional investments in the upcoming season. This combination of factors, including favorable weather conditions, supportive measures, and elevated food prices, is likely to result in improved agricultural performance in the region.

    The anticipated above-average rainfall is set to create conducive weather conditions for cash crop production, including coffee, tea, and palm oil. This is expected to yield average or even above-average harvests, providing a steady income for approximately 45 percent of crop owners, predominantly from better-off and middle-income households. Furthermore, the improved crop production is expected to generate employment opportunities for poor and very poor households, enabling them to earn income through various labor activities associated with crop cultivation and harvesting. However, a shortage of potato planting material for the current season reported by the national seed management institute (ISABU) is likely to result in a reduction in the planting of potatoes and may hinder the increasing trend of cultivating this crop, particularly in the High Altitude livelihood zone. The previous overlapping of 2023 Seasons A and B has led to a decreased planted area in Season B, resulting in a reduced quantity of potato planting material available for the upcoming 2024 Season A. As a result, many of the areas designated initially for potato cultivation will now be used for planting maize instead to mitigate the impact of this shortage.

    Income sources: According to the WFP Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) survey conducted in August 2023, households in Burundi derive a significant portion of their income from various sources. Approximately half of their total income comes from staple crop production and agriculture, with an additional 20 percent coming from labor sales, 15 percent from livestock-related activities, 10 percent from petty trade, and 5 percent from cash crop-related activities (Figure 1). Households with near-average 2023 Season B harvests, particularly the better-off ones, have the capacity to increase their earning by selling a substantial portion of their production for income, capitalizing on the rising food prices.

    Figure 1

    Share of total household income by source among rural households, based on a national survey in August 2023 (n=9,500 households)
    Share of total household income by source among rural households, based on a national survey in August 2023 (n=9,500 households)

    Source: WFP CFSVA

    During Season A, when plowing and sowing of maize and beans occur, poor and very poor households predominantly rely on agricultural labor as their primary source of income. In contrast, middle and better-off households rely on livestock-related activities to earn most of their income. However, labor costs have seen a notable increase, with wages approximately 30 to 50 percent higher than the previous year. This is benefiting poor households in the Eastern Dry Plateaus, High Altitude, Eastern Lowlands, and Buragane livelihood zones by providing them with additional income from labor and enhancing their access to food. Improved access to cross-border opportunities in Tanzania, encompassing farming activities, petty trading, and labor-based employment, is progressively boosting the income of poor and very poor households from the Eastern Lowlands, Eastern Dry Plateaus, and Buragane. The daily wages in Tanzania are 60 percent higher than in Burundi, boosting household income and alleviating competition for locally available jobs.

    However, there are concerns about converting grazing land to potato farming in the High Altitude livelihood zone. While this creates new job opportunities and improves the livelihoods of local populations, particularly poor and very poor households, it can also lead to environmental degradation. Overuse of the land may make it vulnerable to erosion, soil degradation, and water depletion, negatively impacting the long-term sustainability of the local ecosystem and biodiversity and potentially reducing livestock productivity. Additionally, the lower labor wages in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, which are 50 percent below the national average, raise concerns. This issue is particularly significant in the context of increasing food prices, which can diminish the terms of trade for poor and very poor households in the area who rely on markets for food purchases, making them more vulnerable to the effects of rising food prices due to their limited income.

    Economic conditions: The inflation rate has remained high since early in the year, reaching around 30 percent, as the depreciation of the BIF continues. To address BIF instability and to narrow the gap between the official and parallel markets, the Burundi Central Bank (BRB) lifted the ban on foreign exchange bureaus in October 2022. Additionally, BRB increased the official exchange rate of the BIF by 35 percent, and the exchange rate rose from 2,084.43 BIF to 2,817.66 BIF per 1 USD in May 2023. However, the shortage of foreign reserves persists, and the official exchange rate remains approximately 50 percent lower than the parallel market. Moreover, in early October 2023, fuel prices increased to 4,550 BIF, about 40 and 70 percent above July and last year, respectively. Increased fuel prices and high food transportation costs are contributing to rising food prices and increasing prices for imported goods, including food items.

    Food prices: Despite ongoing economic challenges, the near-average 2023 Season B harvest has played a crucial role in stabilizing staple food prices in September. However, these prices have remained significantly high, with increases ranging from 30 to 75 percent compared to the previous year and 80 to 120 percent compared to the five-year average (Figure 2). The food basket price has also increased by 50 percent compared to the five-year average and 30 percent compared to the previous year. The surge in food prices can be attributed to regional inflation, rising costs associated with agricultural inputs, and increased fuel and food transportation expenses. Furthermore, escalating insecurity in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has limited local crop production, resulting in heightened demand for exports to the DRC, especially for rice and maize. Despite administrative restrictions on exporting harvested crops in provinces bordering Rwanda and Tanzania, households and traders are still involved in unofficial exports of beans to these neighboring countries. This is primarily driven by the favorable exchange rates for the local currency, which are 60 percent higher in Tanzania and nearly three times higher in Rwanda, creating economic incentives for such cross-border trade.

    Figure 2

    Food commodity price dynamics
    Food commodity price dynamics

    Source: WFP/SIP

    Humanitarian food assistance: In September 2023, more than 317,000 individuals needed humanitarian assistance, but funding levels were only at about 30 percent of the required amount. This funding shortfall caused approximately 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers to receive only 70 percent of their usual food ration from WFP. However, around 6,300 individuals who returned to their homes were provided with a full ration, including hot meals, during their stay in transit centers. They also received a three-month package to support their reintegration process. Additionally, humanitarian support has been extended to more than 22,000 individuals affected by climatic and socioeconomic shocks in Ngozi, Kirundo, Muyinga, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura since April 2023. This assistance is provided through in-kind aid and cash transfers, covering 100 percent of their caloric needs. While an average of 2,000 to 3,500 returnees has been reported from January to July, an increase in trend of returnees, over 5,500 in August and 6,300 in September was observed. The increase of returnees is linked to the improvements in security and government efforts to support the returnees. 

    Conflict and insecurity: Government efforts to demilitarize political militias since 2022 are decreasing armed attacks. The number of violent incidents instigated by political groups fell by 10 percent year-on-year from 2022 to 2023. Although some instances of insecurity have been observed from January to August 2023, there has been an overall decline in violence. Furthermore, Burundi's National Defence Forces (FDNB) and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) have maintained operations to target insurgents associated with active armed groups in the DRC. These efforts have led to a reduction in the capabilities of these groups to carry out cross-border attacks in Burundi.

    Current Food Security Outcomes

    In the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity situation is anticipated during the lean period from October to December 2023, as per a FEWS NET rapid food security assessment in August 2023. This acute food insecurity is primarily driven by factors such as the depletion of 2023 Season B food stocks, rising food prices, limited access to cross-border opportunities with Rwanda, and very low labor wages, which are 50 percent below the national average. The lean period is especially challenging for households due to additional non-food expenses, including loan repayments used for agricultural inputs during the 2024 Season A, making it harder to afford food.

    Although access to cross-border opportunities in Tanzania has improved, partly due to the removal of COVID-19 testing fees and local agricultural labor opportunities for the 2024 Season A, the Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are still expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes during the lean period. Additionally, poor and very poor households in these areas are likely to face limited access to food from markets due to below-average crop production and increased food prices. However, most households are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes in the western part of the country. This is attributed to the near-normal access to typical food and income sources, allowing them to maintain nearly average access to market purchases despite rising food prices. 

    Furthermore, according to reports from the Ministry of Health, acute malnutrition data show a 15 percent decrease in admission cases, reflecting improved nutrition outcomes since the March 2022 survey, contributing to acceptable GAM <5 percent in most parts of the country. However, an alert level of acute malnutrition (GAM 5-9.9 percent) is expected in the Northern and Eastern livelihood zones (Figure 3). 

    Figure 3

    Trend of average nutrition admissions, 2022–2023
    Trend of average nutrition admissions, 2022–2023

    Source: Ministry of Health


    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Assumptions

    Between October 2023 and May 2024, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following national-level assumptions:

    • Strong El Niño conditions forecasted from October 2023 to early 2024 are expected to lead to above-average rainfall, with peak strength likely to occur from October 2023 to January 2024. Excessive rainfall is likely to cause localized flooded areas in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone and along important rivers, but localized landslides and erosion are expected as well in the Congo Ridge Millet livelihood zone. 
    • 2023 Season C crop production in November is expected to slightly exceed the average. Favorable crop production forecasts are driven by near-average rainfall that occurred in September and increased cropped area due to improved technical support from the government and its partners, including promoting irrigation systems and providing subsidies for fertilizer and improved maize seeds. Crop harvests expected in November will mitigate the October to December lean period for around 45 percent of the population who possess agricultural marshland where Season C is cultivated.
    • The 2024 Season A harvest is likely to be near average, supported by increased availability of fertilizers and improved maize seeds, subsidized at 60 percent by the government. However, due to the high vulnerability to excessive rainfall, bean production (representing 15 percent of the total of Season A production) is expected to be below average. Production of crops mostly tolerant of abundant rainfall, such as tubers, cereals, and bananas, is expected to be moderate, narrowing the gap from reduced production of beans. Crop production is likely to be below average in the north and east of the country, where beans are mostly cultivated in Season A, while it is expected to be partially reduced in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone and along important rivers spread throughout the national territory due to localized flooding.
    • Expected above-average February to May 2024 rainfall is likely to result in below-average 2024 Season B bean crop production, representing 30 percent of total crop production. However, crop production of tubers, maize, and bananas is expected to be near average, supported by abundant rainfall and subsidies of fertilizer and seed.
    • Labor opportunities are expected to increase by 20 percent in October to December compared to last year at the national level, likely encouraging poor and very poor households to be more engaged in agricultural labor, the main income source for around 40 percent of the total population. Similarly, above-average livestock pasture production is expected to provide above-average labor opportunities for poor and very poor households.
    • Continued political tensions between Burundi and Rwanda will likely limit cross-border opportunities in the Northern Lowlands, while increasing insecurity in DRC will keep cross-border opportunities below-average in western areas.
    • Higher labor wages in Tanzania, 60 percent above Burundi's rate, are encouraging the poor and very poor to travel to Tanzania for agricultural labor opportunities. However, income earned is likely to be below-average through May 2024 due to increased competition for similar jobs.
    • Inflation is expected to increase further, expanding the gap between the official and unofficial BIF exchange rates through the projected period and contributing to higher imported goods, including fuel and food prices.
    • Instances of localized political disagreements are likely to continue nationwide through May 2024. Occasional small-scale attacks are also likely in Burundi’s border areas along the Bubanza and Cibitoke provinces.
    • Staple food prices are projected to remain elevated throughout the scenario period, surpassing both last year's prices and the five-year average. In the Gitega market, which is representative of the national trend, bean prices are expected to rise by 30 to 75 percent compared to the previous year and approximately 100 percent compared to the five-year average (Figure 4) during the analysis period. Similar increases are anticipated for maize prices as well (Figure 5). In addition to seasonal trends, the above-average prices are attributed to several factors. These include an expected decrease in food imports, unofficial food exports linked to the devaluation of the BIF compared to the USD, and anticipated rises in fuel and transportation costs. The increase in bean prices is further exacerbated by the likelihood of below-average bean production during the 2024 Seasons A and B.

    Figure 4

    Gitega, beans integrated price projections
    Gitega, beans integrated price projections

    Source: SIP/WFPM

    Figure 5

    Gitega, maize integrated price projections
    Gitega, maize integrated price projections

    Source: SIP/WFP

    • Between 10,000 and 20,000 Burundians are expected to return each month during the analysis period. The number of IDPs is likely to increase by about 10 percent due to the anticipated floods from October to early 2024. The persistent insecurity in the east of DRC is likely to lead to a 10 to 15 percent increase in refugees, expected to reach around 95,000 by May 2024.
    • Nutrition supplementation programs in health centers, school feedings, assistance to returnees, and support for victims of natural disasters are expected to continue at near-average levels. However, food assistance for refugees and asylum seekers is projected to decrease to only 70 percent of the normal food allocation throughout the anticipated period.
    • Acute malnutrition is likely to worsen due to reduced food access during the lean period from October 2023 to January 2024. During this period, more provinces are expected to reach an alert level of acute malnutrition (GAM 5–9.9%), and these levels are likely to persist until January 2024 in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones as well as the Eastern Dry Plateaus. However, nutrition outcomes will likely progressively improve to an acceptable level (GAM <5%) starting from February 2024 in remaining parts of the country, due to increased food availability resulting from the 2024 Season A crop harvest.

    Most Likely Acute Food Security Outcomes

    In the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected from October 2023 to January 2024. This is driven by the rapid depletion of 2023 Season B food stocks, compounded by food price increases, limited income access, low labor wages, and non-food expenses related to loan repayment for 2024 Season A inputs. The Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes during the lean period. Poor and very poor households in these areas are expected to face limited access to food from markets due to below-average income from cross-border opportunities with Tanzania, further worsening the impact of below-average crop production and increased food prices.

    The expected near-average 2024 Season A crop production is likely to improve food access in the Northern Lowlands, improving food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the harvest and post-harvest period from February to May 2024, while also stabilizing the Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones at Stressed levels. Refugees are expected to receive around 70 percent of their food needs, and the number of displaced people due to floods or landslides is projected to increase to 100,000 between October 2023 and May 2024, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2024. However, most households in the western part of the country are likely to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes during the analysis period. This is due to their near-normal access to typical food and income sources, enabling them to maintain nearly average access to market purchases despite food price increases.

    Events that Might Change the Outlook

    Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario

    AreaEventImpact on food security outcomes
    NationalAverage rainfall during the 2024 Seasons A and B Average rainfall would lead to improve beans crop production and average to above-average 2024 Season A and B crop production in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus, leading to below-average flooded areas and a reduced number of IDPs in the Imbo Plains. Average to above-average crop production would likely stabilize food prices and enhance food access in early 2024 at the national level, reducing the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 
    NationalFurther devaluation of the BIFFurther devaluation of the BIF would likely decrease food imports, reduce food availability, and increase food prices. Increased food prices would significantly decrease access to food for poor and very poor households, especially during the lean periods of October to December and April to May, increasing the number of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
    Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones Localized below-average rainfall toward the end of 2023 and early 2024Localized below-average rainfall around the end of 2023 in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones would likely lead to further 2024 Season A crop destruction, resulting in significant below-average crop harvests, increased food prices, and a further decrease in food access at the beginning of 2024. IPC phase classification would deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January to May in the north, and the number of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) would increase in the east. 
    NationalIncrease in fuel price  Further devaluation of the BIF and reduced import capacity at the national level would lead to increased transportation costs and food prices and decreasing access to food for poor and very poor households, especially during the lean periods of October to December and April to May, increasing the number of households in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

     

     


    Areas of Concern Northern Lowlands livelihood zone (Figure 6)

    Current Situation

    The Northern Lowlands Livelihood zone, which borders Rwanda, is home to approximately 1.14 million people, encompassing Kirundo province (including Bugabira, Busoni, parts of Kirundo, and Ntega communes) and Giteranyi commune in Muyinga province. This area has faced challenges such as delayed and below-average rainfall in 2023 Season A, localized rainfall deficits in 2023 Season B, rising food prices, reduced income from cross-border opportunities due to political tensions between Burundi and Rwanda, and a lack of local labor opportunities. The majority of households in this zone heavily rely on subsistence farming for both food and income sources, with 65 percent of them earning money from local agricultural and cross-border labor activities. 

    Food stocks from the near-average 2023 Season B, which were expected to cover most of households’ food needs, were quickly depleted, especially among poor and very poor households due to low yield and increased food prices. Crop production, mainly beans, is their primary income source, and they anticipate selling these crops at higher rates in June and July to repay debts for Season B inputs in March and for sustaining food access during the extended lean period from April to May. Poor and very poor households, representing approximately 45 percent of the total population in this area, are likely to run out of food stocks by the end of October. Restricted access to the Rwandan border has diminished cross-border trade and income opportunities for these households. Typically, they would rely more on income from cross-border activities when crop production is affected by shocks. However, in the absence of such opportunities, they depend on local labor work, which pays significantly less than in Rwanda, around 2,500 BIF in the Northern Lowlands. This is substantially lower than the national daily wage of 3,850 BIF. At the same time, high food prices and below-average income further limit household purchasing power and hinder access to food in the local market. The cost of the food basket in this area has risen significantly, reaching 45 and 55 percent above last year and the five-year average, in contrast to national averages of 30 and 45 percent.

    Figure 6

    Map of Northern Lowlands livelihood zone
    Northern lowlands livelihood zone

    Source: FEWS NET

    The Northern Lowlands livelihood zone has received humanitarian assistance from the WFP and other organizations, benefiting approximately 53,000 people, which is nearly 5 percent of the total population in the zone. This assistance includes a three-month return package comprised of cereals, pulses, oil, and salt for returnees upon arrival, leading to improved food availability in the area and within households. Additional safety nets involve school feedings (twice a week) and cash transfer programs under the MERANKABANDI program, reaching 5,000 households. Moreover, over 2,500 malnourished children receive 200 grams of super cereals per day each month for the treatment of moderate acute malnutrition, while approximately 1,500 pregnant and lactating women receive 250 grams of nutritional supplements.

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:

    • Limited access to cross-border labor opportunities in Rwanda is expected to persist throughout the analysis period. This situation will have a negative impact on the income of poor and very poor households, who rely on agricultural labor opportunities. Labor wages in the area have remained stagnant at a low level, which further reduces the purchasing power of these households, especially considering the increase in food prices. 
    • Social safety nets are likely to continue at below-normal levels due to funding gaps. Despite the resumption of the MERANKABANDI program, which supports 5,000 households, all safety nets are expected to be below-average levels. The nutrition programs for children under five years of age and pregnant and lactating women are likely to continue at the same level.

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Due to the rapid depletion of food stocks from the 2023 Season B and reliance on the market for food access, along with below-average income access, it is anticipated that access to food during the lean period from October to December 2023 will be below normal. The livelihood zone is likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes through January 2024. Additionally, acute malnutrition levels are expected to worsen, leading to an increase in the number of severely malnourished children, although acute malnutrition levels are likely to remain in the alert (GAM 5–9.9%) range.

    During the harvest period of early 2024, the near-average crop production of Season A is expected to improve food access and food availability for poor and very poor households, leading to a transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. Following the harvest trend, acute malnutrition levels are projected to stabilize but remain in the Alert (GAM 5–9.9%) range. 

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Burundi Food Security Outlook October 2023 to May 2024: Persistent high food and fuel prices driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the north, 2023.

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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