Poor Season A, tough economy, pressures from refugees/returnees drive Stressed outcomes

• At the national level, delayed and below-average September-December rainfall caused significant bean and maize losses during the 2026 Season A, resulting in below-average January-February harvests. Conflict in eastern DRC and the resulting three-month border closure led to the suspension of approximately 20 percent of Burundi’s exports from December-February, weakening trade and exacerbating the pre-existing shortages of both foreign currency and fuel. The fuel shortage is increasing transport costs, driving increased prices for food and non-food items and atypical price disparities, with lower prices in surplus-producing areas and higher prices in deficit-producing areas. Staple food prices in January remain elevated above five-year averages by 10-90 percent, depending on location and food type.
• The Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone is among the most severely affected by rainfall deficits and is also under increasing pressure from returnees and refugees from the DRC, primarily hosted in Busuma and Musenyi refugee camps. Key informants estimate that around 120,000 people will rely heavily on market purchases amid elevated food prices through at least June when the Season B harvest begins. About 43 percent of the country’s 230,000 refugees are hosted in this region, adding pressure on local food and income sources. As a result, staple food prices in January were 10-25 percent above last year in the zone, whereas in most other areas of the country prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year. The Eastern Lowlands also hosts the largest share of Burundian returnees - approximately 35,000 people returned between 2023 and 2025. Most have exhausted their three-month assistance package and have yet to regain access to sustainable food and income sources. 

• The Northern Lowlands livelihood zone is also among the most severely affected by rainfall deficits, resulting in reduced agricultural labor opportunities and below-average incomes. A rapid assessment by the National Platform for Disaster Risk Prevention and Management and UN agencies found that 239,600 people were severely affected, with bean crop losses exceeding 50 percent and maize losses nearing 50 percent during the 2026 Season A. These challenges are compounded by the loss of cross-border labor and trade opportunities due to ongoing political tensions and the continued closure of the border with Rwanda. Since late 2025, household incomes have remained below average due to poor agricultural performance and limited access to cross-border employment. The zone is the second-largest return area in the country, receiving nearly 7,000 returnees over the past three years.  

• The Imbo Plains livelihood zone is the most severely affected by the conflict in eastern DRC and closure of the DRC border and is also impacted by flooding along Lake Tanganyika. Since December, more than 100,000 DRC refugees have passed through the zone via six transit centers. By early February 2026, UNHCR reported approximately 33,000 refugees were living in host communities in urban areas in Imbo Plains; however, key informants report the number is likely closer to 50,000, and nearly 10,000 remained in the Cishemere and Makobora transit centers. This influx has increased demand for food and essential goods and heightened competition for work opportunities. The closure of the DRC border – which has been partially reopened as of February 23 - had eliminated key cross-border labor and petty trade opportunities, sharply reducing income access for poor and very poor households, whose livelihoods were already weakened by below-average rainfall. Livelihoods and food access in this area are heavily dependent on transport-related activities (motorcycles, trucks, and small and large vehicles). As a result, fuel scarcity has drastically reduced income-earning opportunities and market access. Additionally, of the 89,114 flood-affected IDPs recorded in 2025, approximately 65,000 are currently hosted within the Imbo Plains livelihood zone.
• In the Eastern Dry Plateaus, approximately 280,000 people, mainly poor households, are expected to rely heavily on market purchases due to the below-average Season A harvest. The zone also currently hosts nearly 57,000 refugees across five camps (Kavumu, Nyankanda, Bwagiriza, Musasa, and Kinama) and approximately 7,000 returnees who have resettled in the zone over the past three years and have yet to regain stable livelihoods. The Busuma refugee camp in the nearby Eastern Lowlands zone, currently the largest refugee settlement in the country with a population of nearly 67,000 refugees, is also contributing to the pressure on local resources. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• Humanitarian food assistance needs have increased since early 2026 following the arrival of approximately 101,000 new refugees from the DRC since December 2025, bringing the total refugee population in Burundi to approximately 230,000, according to UNHCR. Needs are expected to rise further due to the anticipated return of around 93,000 Burundian refugees by May 2026, who historically have been provided with three months of food assistance upon return, following directives by the Tanzanian government for refugees to leave the Nyarugusu and Nduta camps. Since the beginning of 2026, WFP has provided food and cash assistance to more than 156,000 refugees and asylum seekers, and over 37,000 Burundian returnees, 28,000 of whom have arrived since January 1. However, due to funding shortfalls, rations for refugees are 75 percent of the minimum daily caloric requirement (2,100 kcal per person per day), and assistance for returnees is scheduled to be reduced starting in March from 90 days of food assistance to 45 days. WFP’s current resources are sufficient to support approximately 75 percent of the refugees’ minimum food needs through April 2026.

In February, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with pockets of primarily returnee and refugee households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), are ongoing in the Eastern Lowlands, driven by the combined effects of below-average Season A production caused by rainfall deficits, persistent high food prices, and a large Burundian returnee and refugee population. Significant Season A bean and maize losses have prevented adequate replenishment of household food stocks, leaving an estimated 120,000 poor people atypically reliant on markets through June 2026. Staple food prices are 10-25 percent above last year, while income from agricultural labor and petty trade remains below average, constraining purchasing power and limiting households’ access to food via markets. Additionally, nearly 35,000 recent returnees (arriving between 2023-2025) have exhausted their three-month initial assistance package and lack sustainable livelihoods.

The Northern Lowlands livelihood zone remains Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as consecutive seasons of below-average production continues to drive reduced food access. The Season A harvest is currently ongoing; however, crop losses were severe. Bean losses are reported to be over 50 percent, with maize at nearly 50 percent. The poor yields will quickly be exhausted, leaving approximately 240,000 households dependent on markets atypically early. The poor harvest has reduced demand for agricultural labor and reduced incomes, while the continued closure of the Rwanda border eliminates cross-border trade and labor opportunities that would typically serve as an alternate income source for poor households in an unfavorable harvest season. As a result, many poor households are increasingly dependent on market purchases amid weakened purchasing capacity. In addition, around 7,000 returnees who have arrived within the past three years reside in the Northern Lowlands, most of whom have yet to secure stable livelihoods and adequate food access.

The Imbo Plains livelihood zone is experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes with pockets of vulnerable households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), driven by the combined effects of the eastern DRC conflict and border closure, flooding of communities along the banks of Lake Tanganyika, and below-average Season A rainfall. Since December, more than 100,000 refugees have passed through the Imbo Plains. Most have now settled in refugee camps in the east; however, by early February an estimated 33,000-50,000 remained in the Imbo Plains hosted in communities, while nearly 10,000 remained in transit centers. The sudden refugee influx has intensified demand for already-limited food supplies and increased competition for casual labor opportunities. The closure of the border before the February 23 partial opening and continued restricted access have constrained key cross-border labor and trade opportunities, further reducing incomes for poor households already affected by weak harvests. Flooding in 2025 displaced approximately 65,000 people in the area, increasing vulnerability to food insecurity. In addition, delayed and poor rainfall throughout the majority of the September-December 2025 rains significantly hampered Season A bean and maize production, increasing market reliance amid high food prices. Fuel shortages are constraining transport-based livelihoods in this area, which is a net importer of staple food, limiting income generation and market access, and driving up prices for all goods due to the increased costs associated with transporting products to market.

Between February and October 2026, the projected food security outcomes are based on the following national-level assumptions:

• Food stocks from the 2026 Season A harvest will be below average due to poor production stemming from delayed and poor rainfall. Reliance on market purchases for food will be atypically high, particularly among poor households in the northern, eastern, and western regions most affected by rainfall deficits.
• The February-May Season B rains are expected to be average, driven by neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. Positive ENSO conditions are expected to develop and strengthen from May through September, spanning the June-August dry season and possibly supporting above-average rainfall during the start of Season A rains in September. However, uncertainty remains given the long-range nature of the forecast.
• Rainfall from February to May is expected to raise the level of Lake Tanganyika, triggering flooding in the Imbo Plains through May, increasing the number of IDPs.
• 2026 Season B production is expected to be within near-average ranges though slightly on the lower end due to reduced area planted, with the notable exception of Imbo Plains where flooding is likely to lead to localized production shortfalls. Season B harvests will boost household food stocks starting in June.
• From February-June, income from agricultural labor is projected to remain slightly below average, reflecting reduced area planted and lower capacity for hired labor due to below-average Season A crop sales. Cross-border labor opportunities are also expected to remain significantly below average due to continued conflict and uncertainty around the status of the border in DRC and the border closure with Rwanda. Consequently, overall household income is likely to remain below average.
• Inflation is expected to continue through September at rates similar to last year (Figure 1), driven by multiple factors, including border closures reducing market efficiency and fuel and foreign currency shortages. 

• Burundi’s trade deficit widened by nearly 8 percent in December as compared to early 2025, driven by the closure of the border with the DRC which suspended all shipments to Burundi’s largest export destination. This is likely to improve slightly over the course of the projection period due to the partial reopening of the DRC border and some traders establishing new networks in Tanzania and other countries in reaction to the border closure. 
• The persistent foreign currency shortage is expected to sustain the instability of the BIF and continue to constrain import capacity. Exchange rates are expected to remain comparable to current rates through September – at the end of February, the official exchange rate was nearly 3000 BIF/USD, while parallel markets offered rates of around 6000 BIF/USD.  
• Fuel and diesel shortages are likely to persist throughout the analysis period due to limited foreign exchange reserves.
• Staple food prices are expected to be stable and similar to 2025, following seasonal trends while remaining elevated above five-year averages (Figure 2). However, beginning in September — the start of the main lean season — prices are expected to rise above both last year’s levels and the historical average.

• Few new refugees from DRC are expected to arrive between February-September, with territorial shifts in South Kivu province having largely stalled and many of the households most likely to seek refuge in Burundi having already done so in response to M23's Uvira offensive in December.
• Border access with the DRC will likely remain restricted and subject to sudden partial or total closures until control of Uvira and the Ruzizi Plain is decided. The outcome of the fighting will determine the prospects of reopening the entire border. The border with Rwanda is expected to remain closed to both movements of people and goods throughout the projection period due to political tensions.
• The UNHCR anticipates facilitating the return of approximately 93,000 Burundian refugees — compelled by the Tanzanian government to leave the Nyarugusu and Nduta camps in Tanzania — between December 2025 to May 2026. Most returnees are expected to resettle in eastern Burundi in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated to persist in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone through September, with some households likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The anticipated below-average 2026 Season A harvest is expected to be quickly depleted, further strained by the high presence of refugees and returnees in the area. As a result, poor households will be atypically market dependent during the April-May lean season, when food prices are projected to rise further from already elevated February levels. Acute food insecurity is also expected to rise among returnees as they exhaust their temporary food assistance packages, while the number of food-insecure refugees is likely to stabilize near the current level given the minimal flow of new arriving refugees. Despite seasonal improvement in food availability from the anticipated near-average 2026 Season B harvest starting in June, the sudden influx of returnees and refugees is expected to sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

The Northern Lowlands livelihood zone is expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, driven by reduced crop production, elevated food prices, and below-average household incomes. The early depletion of household food stocks during the April-May lean season following the poor Season A harvest is expected to increase the number of food-insecure households, in addition to the households that experienced poor or failed February harvests due to poor rainfall. Greater market reliance, in combination with below-average income from labor and limited cross-border opportunities affecting, will intensify food insecurity during this period. Part of the Season A harvest will be used to repay debts incurred earlier in the year for food and agricultural inputs, accelerating stock depletion despite the expected average harvest. As a result, market dependence from June to September is expected to remain high, while income access remains below average, preventing significant improvement. Poor households, including returnees, are expected to have minimally adequate food consumption but be unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in coping strategies, with some very poor households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In the Imbo Plains, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue through September, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persisting among the most vulnerable households, driven primarily by the ongoing conflict in the DRC and poor Season A production. During the April-May lean season, food security conditions are expected to worsen as already-limited household food stocks from the poor 2026 Season A harvest become depleted. Market reliance will peak amid persistently high — and increasing — food prices. Income-earning opportunities remain limited due to the closure of the DRC border, restricting trade and labor opportunities, while fuel shortages affect transport-based livelihoods. The presence of refugees and flood-affected households will place additional pressure on local food and income sources. The June 2026 Season B harvest is expected to bring some seasonal improvement in food availability; however, below-average production — partly due to reduced area planted from land still occupied by Season A crops — will likely be insufficient to rebuild food stocks or substantially reduce market dependence, especially in a context of elevated food prices.

The depletion of household food stocks is expected to push the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zone into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the April-May lean period, before improving to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from June to September with the support of the near-average 2026 Season B harvest. During the April-May lean season, outcomes are expected to deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as household food stocks are depleted following localized production shortfalls. Market reliance will intensify at a time when food prices are seasonally increasing and remaining above average, further eroding purchasing power. Limited agricultural labor income will compound these constraints, while the continued presence of refugees and returnees will place additional demand on local food supplies and increase competition for labor opportunities. From June to September, the expected near-average 2026 Season B harvest is projected to improve household food availability and ease market dependence, supporting a return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) at the area level. However, despite this seasonal improvement, some poor households — particularly refugees, returnees, and those with limited livelihood assets — are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with some most-vulnerable households remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.
 

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. 

• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.  

• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.  

• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.