Influxes of refugees and returning Burundians add pressure amid Stressed conditions

Agroclimatology: 

• Below-average food stocks from 2025 Season B, stemming from localized below-average rainfall in early 2025 and below-average Season B production, are weakening food access in the east, north, and west. However, average 2025 Season C crop production helped to mitigate the September-December lean period in some areas (Figure 1). Most households — particularly poorer ones — are almost entirely reliant on market purchases for food amid elevated prices and below-average income levels. 

• Delayed and below-average September-December rainfall: The roughly one-month delay in the onset of rainfall led to a late start of 2026 Season A planting activities. The late and below-average rainfall has resulted in poor crop development; key informants reported significant crop losses in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains, especially of beans (approximately 50 percent loss) and maize (approximately 25 percent loss). The below-average crop development is driving atypically low agricultural activity and labor opportunities, leading to lower income for poor households, approximately 40 percent of the population, who rely on agricultural labor as a primary source of income. The January harvest of 2026 Season A crops will be delayed by two to four weeks due to the late planting. Planting for 2026 Season B, which typically starts in mid-February, will also be delayed by two to four weeks. 

Economic conditions:  

• Limited export capacity remains a major contributing factor to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including a widening trade deficit, increasing external debt, and shrinking foreign currency reserves. The situation will likely worsen with the closure of trade routes with the DRC, driven by the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC near Burundi’s border, and will further restrict export capacity (in 2024, exports to the DRC accounted for an estimated 51 percent of Burundi’s total exports). 

• Limited availability of foreign currency and continued depreciation of the BIF are constraining food and essential non-food imports. Prices mostly stabilized at levels near last year’s but remain well above the five-year average. Reduced petty trade activities along the borders, mainly due to ongoing closures with Rwanda and the DRC, are also restricting supplies and incomes. With official exchange rates lagging up to 150 percent behind those of the parallel market, traders are increasingly relying on informal currency exchange to finance imports. Dependence on the parallel market is further contributing to rising prices of staple foods and other essential commodities.  

• Fuel shortage: The ongoing foreign currency shortage continues to drive instability in fuel supplies, with transporters increasingly resorting to unofficial markets where prices can be up to four times higher than the official rate. This has sharply increased transportation costs, pushing up prices for both food and non-food items while reducing petty trade and income-generating opportunities. Reduced ability to transport crops to distant markets is forcing producers to sell locally, resulting in localized price declines in surplus-producing areas and rising prices in deficit areas. This is particularly affecting the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, where the closure of the DRC border is restricting access to informal fuel markets.
• Above-average food prices: Staple food prices remain generally lower and more stable than at the same time last year, but remain notably above the five-year average (Figure 2). Current prices for staple foods range 15-90 percent higher than the five-year average, with rice showing the largest increase. The inflation is driven by rising agricultural input costs and exceptionally high transport expenses due to ongoing fuel shortages. Rice prices are particularly impacted due to high import dependence (about 37 percent is imported, mainly from Tanzania), making it more sensitive to the foreign currency shortage and BIF depreciation. 

Conflict and political tensions:  

• Intensification of the conflict in eastern DRC in early December 2025 prompted large-scale displacement of Congolese refugees and returning Burundians into Burundi. Between December 5-27, UNHCR registered approximately 90,000 Congolese refugees who entered into Burundi, as well as around 10,000 Burundians who had been living in DRC and opted to return to Burundi. Arrivals slowed considerably after December 22, following M23’s announcement that they would withdraw from Uvira and pursue diplomatic engagement. Despite the opening of the new Busuma refugee camp in Ruyigi Province to accommodate the influx, many newly arrived refugees remain in transit centers, while some are hosted by communities within the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, further straining already limited food and income resources. 

• Burundian returnees: The Tanzanian government announced in late November the planned closure of Nduta and Nyarugusu refugee camps in Tanzania. The Burundian and Tanzanian governments, in coordination with UNHCR, have proposed a tentative plan for returns management. 

Humanitarian food assistance 

In November, WFP provided food and cash assistance to around 76,000 refugees and asylum seekers (mainly from the DRC). Due to funding gaps, rations were reduced to 75 percent of the minimum daily kilocalorie needs (2,100 kcal/person/day). As of mid-December, WFP provided hot meals to 78,540 new refugees from DRC, and is expected to shift to dry rations as other refugees arrive. In November, WFP’s also provided assistance to 2,750 Burundian returnees, 17,500 people affected by climatic shocks in Imbo Plains livelihood zone, 16,200 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls, and approximately 24,000 malnourished children.  

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence: 

• Agroclimatology: The planting of 2026 Season B crops, typically occurring in February, is anticipated to be delayed by two to four weeks following the delayed planting and harvesting of 2026 Season A crops. 

• Repatriation: The UNHCR anticipates facilitating the return of approximately 93,000 Burundian refugees — compelled by the Tanzanian government to leave the Nyarugusu and Nduta camps in Tanzania — by May 2026. These returns are part of the roughly 254,000 Burundian refugees currently residing in neighboring countries. Most returnees are expected to resettle in eastern Burundi in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone. 

• Conflict and security: The escalation of conflict in eastern DRC, including early December 2025 attacks that led to M23 gaining control over areas of South Kivu bordering Burundi, most notably the city of Uvira, triggered a large influx of refugees — along with an estimated 2,000 military personnel — into Burundi, significantly increasing humanitarian needs during the projection period. The presence of refugees who are members of the Congolese military, combined with the Burundian government's declared intention to remain engaged in the conflict, is likely to escalate insecurity both in eastern DRC and along Burundi’s border. The Burundian government’s official closure of the border with the DRC is expected to further restrict already-limited access to cross-border income-earning opportunities in the DRC and place additional pressure on local food and income sources. The impact will be particularly felt in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, where many Burundians have historically relied on cross-border labor and trade opportunities for income and where many refugees are hosted in communities; as well as in the Eastern Lowlands and Dry Plateaus zones, where formal refugee camps are located. The situation in eastern DRC along the border is expected to remain tense throughout the projection period — though markedly less violent for the foreseeable future, following that M23’s announcement that they will pursue nonviolent negotiations — and will likely lead to a continued influx of Congolese refugees into Burundi at rates similar to before M23’s December 5 offensive and prolonged restrictions on cross-border opportunities into the DRC.  

Humanitarian food assistance 

In the context of limited humanitarian assistance, food assistance needs in early 2026 are expected to grow by approximately 700,000 people due to the arrival of more than 90,000 new refugees from the DRC in December, the return of approximately 93,000 Burundian refugees from Tanzania from December-May, and nearly 400,000 persons in the Northern and Eastern livelihood zones likely to experience crop failure for the 2026 Season A harvests.  

In the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist during the Season A harvest and post-harvest period from January to May 2026, primarily driven by the early depletion of below-average 2026 Season A stocks, reduced income from constrained agricultural labor opportunities, limited cross-border trade with Rwanda, and elevated food prices. From January to February, the Season A harvest will drive a temporary increase in household food stocks and a marginal decrease in staple food prices. However, the failure of approximately 50 percent of bean fields and 25 percent of maize fields due to rainfall deficits and use of crops for debt repayments (incurred at the end of 2025 for food and agricultural inputs) will prevent any meaningful improvements. As a result, poor households’ food stocks will deplete by the end of February (compared to the end of April as is typical), forcing increased dependence on market purchases. In the context of reduced income and elevated food prices, this will constrain food access for many households, sustained Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Approximately 186,000 poor individuals (16 percent of the area’s population) most affected by rainfall deficits are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, having lost nearly all their 2026 Season A crops. In addition, Burundian returnees in Kirundo and Muyinga provinces remain a relatively small population in the Northern Lowlands (less than 3 percent), but with notable food needs: once the three-month WFP assistance ends, many will likely face moderate food consumption gaps and increasingly depend on market purchases amid the same high food prices and limited income-earning opportunities affecting the general population, but with fewer pre-existing household assets.

In the Eastern Lowlands, sustained Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between January and May 2026 due to combined pressures from a large influx of returning Burundians between December and May, atypically low Season A crop production due to rainfall deficits, and persistent elevated food prices. The expected influx of approximately 100,000 returning Burundians from Tanzania into the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone between December and May will create a surge in market demand for staple foods, driving upward pressure on food prices. The high prices will be compounded by below-average 2026 Season A crop production and below-average agricultural labor income. The refugees and returnees living in the eastern lowlands will likely continue to face difficulty accessing labor opportunities amid the high food prices and will experience constrained purchasing capacity and limited financial access to food. These households, while under 20 percent of the population, will likely continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

The Imbo Plains livelihood zone is expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from January to May 2026, driven by conflict-related impacts in neighboring DRC, further deterioration of the ongoing fuel shortage, and below-average Season A crop production. The Burundian government’s decision to officially close its border with the DRC, in response to M23 pushing south and capturing the city of Uvira in early December, is effectively eliminating income-earning opportunities from cross-border trade and labor. Simultaneously, the flare-up in the DRC conflict catalyzed the December arrival of approximately 90,000 new Congolese refugees into Burundi. While the majority (approximately 73 percent) of the new refugees have already been relocated to dedicated refugee camps, FEWS NET estimates that approximately 25,000 remained in the Imbo Plains as of the end of December. Some of these refugees will remain in the Imbo Plains integrated within host communities, increasing demand for food and essential goods and heightening competition for income-generating opportunities. Severely constrained transportation caused by ongoing fuel shortages also continues to limit opportunities for income and drive persistently above-average food prices, limiting food access. Additionally, below-average rainfall from October to December is driving poor crop performance and is expected to lead to a below average Season A harvest in January-February, limiting food access from own production. Many refugee and IDP households in the Imbo Plains are likely to face moderate food consumption gaps and experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the January-May projection period.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.