Above-average Season C harvest enhances food availability in the north

• Most areas in western Burundi are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2024, supported by remaining food stocks from the near-average 2023 Season B harvest, above-average 2023 Season C harvest, expected near-average 2024 Season A crop production, and relatively stable access to income sources. Despite the improvements in access to food, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone through January, driven by rapid depletion of 2023 the below-average Season B food stocks, high food prices, and restricted access to cross-border opportunities. Meanwhile, the Eastern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions until May 2024, due to limited income earning opportunities.
• During the lean period leading up to January, the availability of food has been enhanced through food imports from Tanzania, restrictions on the export of crop harvests to neighboring countries such as Tanzania and Rwanda, and limitations on local food transportation between provinces. Additionally, the above-average 2023 Season C harvests further improved access. The administrative measures undertaken not only helped stabilize food prices but also encouraged the preservation of household food stocks for domestic consumption. As a result, there was a decrease in bean prices by approximately 10 percent in December compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, prices remained notably high, ranging from 35 to 65 percent above the five-year average and about 10 percent higher than last year's prices.
• The timely commencement of the short rains season at the end of September allowed for a typical onset of preparations for the 2024 Season A. The above-average rainfall has created favorable vegetative conditions for various crops, such as maize, rice, sorghum, cassava, sweet potatoes, bananas, and cash crops, as well as grazing pasture for livestock. However, the excess moisture has had adverse effects on bean crops, which are particularly sensitive to such conditions. In scattered areas across the country, erosion, landslides, and floods resulting from the abundant rainfall have destroyed crops and livelihood assets.
• According to WFP, funding shortfalls resulted in around 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers receiving about 70 percent of their usual food ration. This shortage in food assistance is likely to contribute to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes among these households until January 2024. Approximately 6,300 individuals who have returned to their homes have been provided with a full ration, inclusive of hot meals during their stay in transit centers, along with a three-month package to support their reintegration. The humanitarian assistance has been extended to over 22,000 individuals who have been affected by climatic and socioeconomic shocks in Ngozi, Kirundo, Muyinga, Cibitoke, and Bujumbura through a combination of in-kind and cash transfers, covering 100 percent of their caloric needs. 

Agricultural production and food availability: The food security situation at the end of 2023 is marked by the lean period from October to January, eased in part by Season C crop production and vegetables picked from Season A crops. To manage the near-average 2023 Season B crop production, the government has implemented administrative measures restricting crop harvest exports to Rwanda and limiting food transport between provinces. These administrative actions have led to a slowdown in crop sales by farmers and a preservation of household food stocks. However, most poor households have limited access to marshlands and have already depleted their food stocks, are relying on markets to secure food, taking advantage of increased access to labor income and opportunities from 2024 Season A activities. They are also burdened with substantial expenses associated with repayment of debts from the purchase of agricultural inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and labor expenses for Season A planting conducted in September and October. In the current year, households are facing high food prices compared to the five-year average and localized damages on cassava due to plant diseases and floodings particularly in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones.

Season C crop production represents 15 percent of the annual crop production and provides food stocks for about three weeks between October and December to around 45 percent of the total population possessing marshland plots. Above-average rainfall from September to November (Figure 1), attributed to the prevailing El Niño conditions, enhanced soil moisture, creating favorable conditions for the above-average 2023 Season C and increasing income for poor households. This positive outcome is further supported by an expanded cropped area, cultivation of the grazing lands, attributed to increased support from the government and partners. This support includes initiatives such as the promotion of irrigation systems and subsidies for fertilizers and improved maize seeds. 

The short rains season started on time by the end of September, allowing for a typical onset of 2024 Season A. Due to above-average rainfall and good distribution, vegetative conditions are likely to promote favorable growth of various crops, including maize, rice, sorghum, cassava, and sweet potatoes, as well as banana cultivation and pasture for livestock. The above-average rainfall mitigated the expansion of the fall armyworm attacking maize crops in Burundi since 2016 (Figure 2), and losses caused by the pest are expected to be below 5 percent. However, the above-average rainfall has negatively affected bean crops, which are sensitive to excess moisture. In addition, localized areas across the country have been affected by erosion, landslides, and floods that have destroyed crops and infrastructure, including residential houses, public infrastructure, bridges, and roads.

Income sources: The near-average 2023 Season B crop harvests and increased food availability increased incomes for middle and better-off households that rely on staple crop production as their primary income source, representing half of rural households. The increased income of these population groups, supported by favorable rainfall and subsidies on agricultural inputs, encouraged many farmers to invest in 2024 Season A crop production, creating increased agricultural labor opportunities between September and December 2023. As a result, labor costs increased by around 35 percent compared to last year (Figure 3), which is benefiting poor households, estimated at 30 percent of the total population, by increasing their income. 

The reopening of borders and the removal of COVID-19 testing requirements for entry into Tanzania have allowed poor and very poor households from the Eastern Lowlands, Eastern Dry Plateaus, and Buragane zones to expand their cross-border opportunities. This includes engagement in farming activities, petty trade, and labor-based work. Moreover, daily wage earnings in Tanzania are 60 percent higher than in Burundi, which further incentivizes employment opportunities across the border, supporting household income and alleviating competition for local jobs. The resumption of cross-border labor opportunities is improving the income prospects of poor and very poor households, which, in turn, is contributing to enhanced access to food.

However, in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, where the labor wage is 20 percent below the national average and cross-border opportunities are limited, poor and very poor households continue to face elevated food prices. These high food prices are due to the increased cost of food transportation.

Economic conditions: The annual inflation rate has remained high at around 30 percent since early in the year, and the inflation rate for food products stood at 35 percent in October 2023, as the depreciation of the BIF continues. The international trade deficit increased by approximately 30 percent by the end of 2023 compared to the first semester, leading to the deterioration of foreign reserves and import capacity. Fuel has been among the most affected imported commodities, becoming unavailable in petrol stations since the price increase in early October 2023, and prices remain 70 percent above last year’s levels. Due to the lack of fuel at petrol stations transporters resort to the unofficial market for fuel, which is two to three times above official prices. Besides, due to the lack of foreign reserves, traders are also forced to resort to the parallel market for imports, which operate at 50 percent above the official rate. This is atypically increasing imported food prices and driving up staple food prices. These factors collectively create challenges in effectively managing and controlling inflation, leading to higher prices for imported goods, particularly food products.

Food prices: Despite ongoing economic difficulties, food prices were stable from August to October due to the near-average 2023 Season B harvest. Additionally, the release of residual food stocks from wholesale traders in November, coupled with above-average harvests from 2023 Season C, sustained stable food prices and led to a slight decrease of around 10 percent in bean prices for that month. However, despite these efforts, prices have remained notably high, ranging between 35 to 65 percent above the five-year average and around 10 percent higher than the previous year (Figure 4). The increase in food prices can be attributed to escalating expenses related to agricultural inputs, alongside increased fuel and food transportation costs. Despite administrative restrictions on exporting harvested crops from provinces bordering Rwanda and Tanzania, households and traders continue engaging in unofficial exports of beans to these neighboring countries. This unofficial trade is largely motivated by the favorable exchange rates for the local currency, which are 60 percent higher in Tanzania and nearly three times higher in Rwanda, creating significant economic incentives for cross-border trading activities.

Humanitarian food assistance: Approximately 55,000 refugees are residing in camps and entirely dependent on humanitarian assistance. These refugees have been provided with cash assistance and in-kind food items. Due to funding shortages, the assistance has been reduced by 30 percent, covering about 70 percent of recipients’ caloric needs. Additionally, around 900 asylum seekers have received rations covering nearly 65 percent of their energy needs. According to WFP, the supply pipeline will start running out of stock in August 2023 until the anticipated arrival of an in-kind rice donation from the Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance (BHA)/USAID, which is scheduled around end of 2023. However, there are plans to provide Comprehensive Specialized Nutritious Foods (CSB++) assistance to 16,250 prioritized children from July to December 2023. Additionally, CSB+ will be distributed to close to 11,000 pregnant and lactating women until November 2023.

The assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Burundi Food Security Outlook for October 2023 to May 2024 remain unchanged, except for the following:

• At the end of 2023, staple food prices are expected to decline slightly due to the near-average 2023 Season B and above-average 2023 Season C harvests. Between January and May 2024, a near-average 2024 Season A production is expected to bring prices to levels similar to last year’s but higher than the five-year average. 
• Labor wages increased by 40 to 50 percent compared to last year in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone and are expected to remain high during the 2024 Season B period, given improved investment in the season due to above-average rainfall and increased access to agricultural inputs. This is likely to increase purchasing power through May 2024 for households relying on agricultural labor opportunities, representing around 40 percent of the total population.
• An early 2023 USAID/Program for the East Africa Region (APPEAR) study found acceptable levels of aflatoxins in crops, ranging from 1.3 to 4 μg/kg in the country sample and below the East Africa threshold of 10 μg/kg, but highlighted concerns. Poor post-harvest conditions and inadequate storage facilities are anticipated to increase the proliferation of the fungus. This situation is further exacerbated by the likelihood of higher moisture levels expected during the potentially above-average 2024 Season A. Should aflatoxin levels be declared toxic in the region, it could trigger a sanitary ban on consuming maize flour. Such a ban would significantly impact the price of maize, leading to potential fluctuations in the market. 
• High fuel prices are likely to persist until May 2024, driven by the devaluation of the BIF and ongoing economic difficulties. This is expected to increase reliance on informal fuel supplies, which are approximately three times the official price. This will increase transportation costs for food, driving up food prices. 

Despite increased access to food from Season C production and remaining stocks from the Season B harvest, poor and very poor households in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone remain marginally able to meet minimum food needs, likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes through January 2024. This is driven by the rapid depletion of 2023 Season B food stocks, compounded by food price increases, limited income access, and non-food expenses related to loan repayment for 2024 Season A agricultural inputs. The Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through January. The poor and very poor households in these areas are expected to face above-average food prices in the local markets and below-average income from cross-border opportunities with Tanzania, combined with below-average cassava production due to cassava mosaic disease and brown streak disease.

Near-average 2024 Season A crop production and improved agricultural labor opportunities are likely to improve food access in the Northern Lowlands, improving food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the harvest and post-harvest period from February to May 2024. The Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, it is projected that refugees will receive assistance covering only about 70 percent of their food needs during this period. The number of displaced individuals due to factors like floods or landslides is estimated to rise to 100,000 between October 2023 and May 2024, leading to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout that period. Meanwhile, households in the western part of the country are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes. This is attributed to above-average rainfall and near-normal access to typical food and income sources, enabling them to maintain relatively average access to market purchases despite increases in food prices.

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Burundi Food Security Outlook Update, December: Above-average Season C harvest enhances food availability in the north, 2023.