Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The food security situation at the end of 2020 is characterized by the seasonal exhaustion of 2020 Season C production in November. According to the ENAB (Enquete Agricole Nationale du Burundi), 2020 Season C crop production was near average and contributed to mitigating the severity of the lean season that began in September.

Rainfall delays of more than one month postponed the implementation of 2021 Season A, normally planted in mid-September. A remote assessment of 2021 Season A implementation from the Ministry of Environment, Agriculture, and Livestock in November indicated that the delay of the season is mostly prominent in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands, and Imbo Plains livelihood zones. In these areas, the delayed crop harvest will prolong the lean period for more than one month to February instead of January. Localized areas in Busoni commune in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone are the most affected, with more than 50 percent of planted crops already destroyed by the drought by around 45 days before the harvest period, as reported by key informants (Figure 1).

In the Highlands livelihood zone, 2021 Season A crops were negatively affected by storm and hail in localized areas, though no large-scale crop destruction was observed. Fall armyworm has been attacking maize crops in localized areas of the middle and lowlands livelihood zones, also not expected to have large-scale impact.

In addition to the extension of the lean period, current food insecurity is characterized by above-average staple food prices. Current above-average food prices are occurring at a time of seasonally elevated market dependence following the exhaustion household’s food stocks from 2020 B Season and the delay of harvest of 2021 A Season. In November 2020, maize prices were stable compared to the same period last year and the five-year average while cassava and bean prices were 50 and 45 percent higher, respectively, compared to November 2019 and 12 and 30 percent higher than the five-year average. Sweet potato, Irish potatoes, and banana prices are 10 to 30 percent higher compared to last year and five-year average prices (Figure 2). Despite high prices, households across most of the country are able to meet food needs by accessing normal income sources.

Income sources and market food access in livelihood zones near borders, however, remain negatively affected by COVID-19 movement restrictions, which limit poor and very poor households from accessing cross-border trade and labor opportunities. The high level of inflation, which increased from 6.6 percent in September to 7.3 percent in November, and reduced availability of foreign currency is limiting food imports from neighboring countries such as Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia and contributing to elevated food prices.

A particular deterioration of food security in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone is evidenced by preliminary SMART survey results conducted during the lean period of September and October. The preliminary SMART survey results revealed that poor and borderline food consumption scores are 11 and 36 percent, respectively, in Busoni commune localized in the indicated livelihood zone and a GAM prevalence of seven percent in Kirundo province, covering a part of the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone. This evidence is in line with stressed food security outcomes, which are expected to remain through May 2021.

Poor and very poor households across the country are able to meet basic food needs by consuming some vegetables and greens from the Season A crops. However, the delay of harvest of 2021 A Season, strong dependence on markets in the context of increased of food prices and the reduction of income resources near borders are reducing food access in Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands, and Imbo Plains livelihood zones. These areas are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through May 2021.