Poor rainfall in north and east, DRC conflict to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated in the Northern Lowlands during the post-harvest period from August to September. Below-average food stocks from the 2025 Season B harvest following insufficient rainfall, combined with the ban on cross-border access to Rwanda and below-normal income amid rising food prices, are expected to reduce food access for poor households in this area.
• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to continue in the north and emerge in the Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones during the October 2025 to January 2026 lean season. Atypical dependence on markets for food access — resulting from the rapid depletion of household food stocks amid rising staple food prices and below-average income — is expected to limit food access in these areas. In the north and east, reduced seasonal agricultural labor opportunities are anticipated, linked to the anticipated La Niña conditions in those areas, limiting opportunities for income generation. In the north and west, opportunities for income through cross border labor and trade will be severely reduced by the closure of the Rwandan and conflict in DRC, respectively.
• Needs will likely peak between October 2025 to January 2026, coinciding with the typical main lean season. The populations of highest concern are poor households affected by regional insecurity and climatic shocks in the east, north, and west, as well as refugees and returnees.
• A shortage of humanitarian food assistance is expected through early 2026, coinciding with peak needs driven by below-average rainfall in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, in tandem with the ongoing influx of refugees from the DRC. Funding shortfalls have already resulted in ration cuts down to 50 percent of the minimum daily kilocalorie requirement since early 2025, down from 70 percent in 2024. Without additional support, WFP states food assistance will cease after December and nutrition assistance will end as early as October. The school feeding program for 800,000 children remains unfunded for the upcoming school year (September 2025 to June 2026).

Agricultural production: Food availability from June to December is typically largely dependent on the performance of Season B, which accounts for approximately 50 percent of annual crop production. Despite localized below-average rainfall in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands, near-average rainfall from February to June supported near-average national production of cereals (rice and sorghum) and tubers (sweet potatoes, potatoes, and cassava). However, bean production was below average in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands due to the localized rainfall deficits. Government support also contributed to sustaining near-average overall production through subsidies for fertilizer, maize seeds, and technical assistance.

Income sources: According to the WFP Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) baseline survey updates from the Food Security Monitoring System (WFP/FSMS) in August, approximately half of total income for rural households comes from staple crop sales, with an additional 20 percent from day labor, 15 percent from livestock-related activities, 10 percent from petty trading, and 5 percent from cash crop-related activities (e.g., processing, sales). 

Due to above-average food prices, the near-average 2025 Season B harvest generated above-average income for better-off households selling their crops, helping to offset rising costs of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, seeds, and labor. Higher incomes are encouraging more intensive crop production and supporting near-average agricultural labor opportunities for poor households. However, ongoing fuel shortages and rising transportation costs are limiting the movement of food from surplus- to deficit-producing areas, preventing producers from fully benefiting from higher market prices and keeping prices marginally lower in production areas.

Off-own-farm day labor wages (the main source of income for poor households, who make up 40 percent of the population), have risen by around 70 percent compared to last year. In the east and the south, this is largely due to improved access to cross-border opportunities in Tanzania, which has complemented agricultural activities and boosted labor income, particularly in the Eastern Lowlands, Eastern Dry Plateaus, and Buragane regions. Conversely, in the Northern Lowlands, labor wages remain around 30 percent below the national average. The ongoing closure of the Burundi-Rwanda border since early 2024 has restricted cross-border income-earning opportunities for poor households, resulting in below-average earnings. Similarly, in the Imbo Plains, labor opportunities remain limited due to restricted cross-border access linked to the conflict in eastern DRC.

Favorable rainfall in early 2025 supported the production of cash crops (such as coffee, tea, and palm oil), as well as livestock rearing among middle and better-off households, helping to stabilize their incomes while generating labor opportunities for poor households. Additionally, the government's decision in May 2025 to increase the coffee purchase price by nearly 100 percent (from 1,380 to 2,800 BIF) substantially boosted earnings for coffee farmers.

Petty trade is a primary income source in urban border areas and is important in regions near Rwanda, Tanzania, and the DRC. However, in areas surrounding major cities, petty trade has declined to below-average levels due to ongoing fuel shortages and the rising cost of transport. Moreover, the depreciation of the BIF against neighboring currencies has reduced import volumes and earnings from cross-border trade. Income from petty trade has further declined in the Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones due to the closure of the Rwandan border and conflict-limited access to the DRC.

Economic conditions: The persistently low export capacity remains a key driver behind worsening macroeconomic indicators, such as the growing trade deficit, rising external debt, and declining foreign currency reserves. The limited availability of foreign currency continues to fuel BIF volatility, with official exchange rates trailing up to 150 percent behind parallel market rates and constraining the country’s ability to import goods. Traders are increasingly turning to the parallel market for imports, contributing to rising prices for both food and essential non-food items. However, a slight decline in inflation was recorded in July 2025 at 38.9 percent (a decrease of 2.8 points from June and 6.7 points from the April-May lean season). This drop is mainly attributed to seasonal reductions in food prices following the 2025 Season B harvest. Nevertheless, the inflation rate remains 20.2 points higher than the same period last year.

Food imports: Food availability is being negatively impacted by below-average food imports due to limited foreign currency reserves and reliance on the parallel market, as well as atypically high exportation of Burundian production. Key informants report that, contrary to normal trends, food is being exported to neighboring countries due to the weak currency. In particular, food stocks from eastern Burundi are reportedly flowing into Tanzania, where below-average rainfall has reduced local crop production, facilitated by open borders with Burundi. As a result, food stocks in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone are expected to be depleted by October.

Food prices:The Season B harvest helped to partially stabilize staple food prices in June and July 2025, consistent with normal annual trends. However, staple food prices remain elevated at around 10 percent higher than last year and 45-100 percent above the five-year average (Figure 1). High food prices persist across Burundi, due in part to increased agricultural input costs and labor wages, which have risen by 60 percent compared to last year. Additionally, fuel shortages and higher transportation costs continue to drive food price increases. The persistent inflation, combined with limited access to foreign currency, has also restricted imports through the parallel market, further increasing prices of food and non-food items.

Humanitarian food assistance: Humanitarian food assistance is being provided to refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), Burundian returnees, and poor households affected by floods and rainfall deficits. According to the WFP July 2025 report, food assistance was provided to approximately 75,000 refugees from the DRC, 1,000 Burundian returnees (mainly from the DRC), and 67,000 persons affected by flooding (in the west) and rainfall deficits (in the north and east). However, due to funding shortages and an increase in unexpected new arrivals since early 2025, refugees have been receiving only 50 percent of their daily kilocalorie requirements since March, down from 70 percent previously. WFP also distributed specialized nutritious food to malnourished individuals, including 4,200 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls, and 21,000 children across seven provinces.

FEWS NET’s scenario development process is used to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

Rainfall: La Niña conditions forecasted for the end of 2025 are expected to result in below-average rainfall in semi-arid areas of the Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones through January 2026, while near-average rainfall is anticipated across the rest of the country.

Crop production, 2025 Season C: Unseasonal rainfall in August 2025, combined with agricultural extension support and input subsidies from the government and partners, has benefited 2025 Season C crops. As a result, Season C crop production, which occurs in the marshland areas and is harvested between October and November, is expected to be above-average. 

Crop production, 2026 Season A: Forecasted localized below-average rainfall and nationally below-average soil moisture from high temperatures towards the end of 2025 are likely to result in a below-average 2026 Season A harvest in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands in December-January. 

Inflation: Headline and food inflation, which have hovered around 40 percent month-on-month since January, are expected to stay elevated and peak during the lean season from October 2025 to January 2026.

Macroeconomic indicators: The continued limited export capacity is expected to further deteriorate key macroeconomic indicators throughout the projection period, including widening the trade deficit, increasing external debt, reducing foreign currency reserves, and heightening reliance on loans.

Fuel and diesel availability: Fuel and diesel shortages are projected to continue throughout the analysis period, with limited supplies likely sourced from the informal market at prices two to three times higher than normal, driving up transportation and food costs.

Staple food prices: Staple food prices are expected to stay above both last year’s levels and the five-year average throughout the projection period. In addition to typical seasonal price increases, atypical food exports to neighboring countries — driven by the weak BIF — are likely to persist. Fuel shortages, rising transportation costs, elevated inflation, and limited access to foreign currency are constraining imports through the parallel market and are expected to further increase the cost of food and essential non-food items.

Repatriation: Between August and January 2026, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is likely to facilitate the return of 21,000 out of 246,641 Burundian refugees in neighboring countries. Most of the returnees are expected to resettle in eastern, northern, and southern Burundi. 

Conflict and security: The conflict in eastern DRC and political tension between Rwanda and Burundi are likely to reduce cross-border trade opportunities, reducing income in the Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains livelihood zones. Fighting in eastern DRC is expected to persist, driving the number of refugees arriving in Burundi even higher, expected to reach 160,000 by December. The refugees are hosted in six refugee camps in Cankuzo, Ngozi, Rutana, and Ruyigi provinces.

Acute malnutrition outcomes are expected to worsen through the October to December lean season, with Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains the most affected, but will likely remain within Alert (GAM 5-9.9 percent) levels countrywide.

Humanitarian food assistance: According to WFP, humanitarian food assistance to refugees will remain limited to 50 percent rations through December for a maximum of 80,000 recipients, after which point it will be discontinued unless further funding is secured. Nutrition assistance for malnourished individuals will end in October unless more funding is provided.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

In the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes are expected during the post-harvest period of August to September and will likely persist through January 2026.Below-average food stocks from the 2025 Season B harvest, combined with restricted cross-border access to Rwanda and lower-than-normal income amid rising food prices, are expected to result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes during the post-harvest period of August to September. These outcomes are likely to persist through January 2026, driven by the anticipated early depletion of food stocks in October, much of which have been sold to repay debts incurred for food and agricultural inputs for 2025 Season B production. The continued closure of the Rwandan border and forecasted below-average rainfall will also limit agricultural labor opportunities, further reducing income for poor households. This, compounded by the elevated food staple food prices, is expected to weaken household purchasing power and limit food access.  

In the Eastern Lowlands, deteriorating food access is expected to drive a shift from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from August-September to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between October 2025 and January 2026. Supported by access to better-paying labor opportunities in Tanzania — where wages are nearly three times higher than Burundi — and near-average food stocks, access to food will be sustained during the post-harvest period from August to September. However, food stocks are expected to be depleted by October. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are then expected to emerge between October-January due to below-average October-December rainfall linked to forecast La Niña conditions, which will likely result in below-average Season A crop production and below-average agricultural labor opportunities. Additionally, atypically high exports of staple foods to Tanzania (a response to poor harvests in Tanzania and the strength of the TZS to the BIF) will reduce food availability through market purchases and limit financial access to food due to the low supply and high demand. 

In the Imbo Plains livelihood zone, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes during August-September will deteriorate to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between October 2025 and January 2026. The near-average food stocks from the 2025 Season B harvest are expected to deplete quickly, as the continuing influx of refugees from the DRC increases demand amid the context of reduced income and rising food prices. The depletion of food stocks, together with below-average income due to the high competition for limited labor opportunities and severely limited transport options stemming from persistent fuel shortages, are expected to constrain food access and drive the emergence of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during the October to January lean season. The cessation of food assistance, currently planned to take effect in December in the absence of continued funding, will have an outsized effect on the Imbo Plains area, as the region currently houses approximately 20,000 of the more than 95,000 UNHCR-documented Congolese refugees in the country, as well as many Burundians at high risk of displacement due to anticipated flooding of Lake Tanganyika beginning in January.

Across the remainder of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through the August-September and October 2025-January 2026 projection periods. Food access is expected to remain stable through September, supported by near-average household food stocks from the 2025 Season B harvest. From October to December, food access will likely decline due to the depletion of food stocks, rising inflation, and limited foreign currency reserves restricting food imports. However, forecasted near-average rainfall is expected to support typical food and income access across most of the country, particularly through agricultural labor as wages remain elevated, helping poor households maintain access to food. Burundian returnees spread across the country (but mostly located in the east and north in provinces such as Makamba, Ruyigi, Kirundo, and Muyinga), continue to constitute a relatively small but notable group as it relates to food needs. According to UNHCR, approximately 75 percent of returnees have access to their land, but it typically takes around two years to restore normal livelihoods. After returnees exhaust the three months of humanitarian assistance provided upon their arrival, they are expected to face widened food consumption gaps through the projected period. Returnees will depend on the market for food access amid high food prices. Countrywide, nutrition outcomes are anticipated to deteriorate during the lean season but remain within Alert levels (GAM 5–9.9 percent).