Famine Early Warning Systems Network

In August, household food stocks from the 2022 B season typically decline, with most households earning income from daily agricultural labor opportunities such as weeding for the 2022 B season and land preparation for the 2023 A season. According to key informants, labor opportunities are currently normal.  

Across most of Burundi, agricultural labor wages are 10 to 20 percent higher than last year and the four-year average, improving poor household access to income and maintaining household purchasing power as food prices increase (Figure 1). However, labor wages remain close to the four-year average and around 10 percent below last year for the Eastern and Northern lowlands, and the East Arid plateaus livelihood zones due to increased competition for agricultural labor opportunities following lower than normal access to cross-border labor opportunities.

Across Burundi, food prices are atypically high due to high fuel and food transportation costs and low fuel supplies. In urban centers, key informants report that it can take up to three days to refuel at a gas station. From January to July 2022, fuel prices have increased almost 40 percent in the official market and are retailing in Bujumbura at 3,250 BIF/liter for gas (~6.02 USD/gallon) on average. Still, fuel retails at three times the official price on the informal market, where most transportation trucks are sourcing gas. Due to the high fuel prices, stable food prices are 20 to 30 percent above the five-year average and 5 to 40 percent above last year (Figure 2). Relatedly, a high inflation rate and limited access to hard currency limits imports.  According to the Institut des Etudes Statistiques du Burundi (ISTEEBU), the Consumer Price Index has increased by 30 percent from July 2021 to July 2022, which is reducing household purchasing power.

Across Burundi, the number of reported Rift Valley Fever (RVF) cases is declining after a peak in cases in June 2022. A vaccination campaign that started in July is likely driving the decline in RVF cases in cattle in the most affected provinces. Butchering is now being allowed in localized areas, slightly improving labor opportunities, even though livestock markets remain closed throughout the nation.

In early August 2022, WFP undertook a food security survey through the Food Security and Monitoring System (WFP/FSMS) to better determine food insecurity outcomes across Burundi. Key findings indicate that nationally around 80 percent of households are likely facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, while 15 and 5 percent are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes. However, in the northern and eastern areas of Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to be present as at least one in five people reported a Borderline or Poor food consumption score (FCS) and slight to moderate Household Hunger Score (HHS), indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or worse outcomes. As these areas are typically the largest producers and suppliers of beans, the anticipated below-average 2022 B Season beans harvest will likely reduce household incomes. The increase in food and transportation costs are also likely decreasing household purchasing power, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Furthermore, the lack of typical crop production from poor households who used to cultivate on rented land in Tanzania is primarily driving food insecurity in the Eastern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateau livelihood zones. While in the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, the lack of cross-border opportunities due to border closures has resulted in crop production being the primary source of income for poor households. Key informants also reported that poor households atypically sold 2022 Season B food stocks to pay back debts incurred to purchase food from January to May 2022, accelerating the exhaustion of 2022 Season B stocks. According to findings from the WFP/FSMS survey, around 45 percent of food stocks are exhausted in August, and most households purchase food from the market. In the Eastern and Northern Lowlands and Eastern Dry Plateau livelihood zone, the increasing food prices at markets (bean and maize prices increased by 7 to 10 percent from July to mid-August) and lower labor wages than last year likely increased reliance on food stocks resulting in a faster than normal decline, along with lower than normal purchasing power of poor and very poor households, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.