Burundi

The Eastern and Northern Lowlands and the Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zones are anticipated to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels of acute food insecurity from August to September. This is attributed to a decline in food stocks from the 2023 Season B harvest, an increase in food prices, and restricted cross-border activities with Tanzania and Rwanda. Notably, the Northern Lowlands livelihood zone, with labor wages 65 percent below the national average, is particularly susceptible to abnormal food price hikes. This zone is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the lean period from October to December 2023. However, more typical access to food and income is likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes in the central and western regions of the country until January 2024.

The 2023 Season B harvest played a role in stabilizing prices; however, prices remained significantly high, ranging from 50 to 75 percent above the five-year average and 30 to 80 percent above the previous year’s prices. This surge in food prices is attributed to regional inflation, elevated costs of agricultural inputs, and increased expenses for fuel and food transportation. Notably, in early August, significant price hikes were observed in several essential commodities that are regulated by the government. For instance, there was a 32 percent increase in sugar prices, a 25 to 50 percent rise in prices of processed products, and a 30 percent increase in the price of cement.

During the Season A period from August/September to January, rainfall patterns are expected to deviate from the norm. From August to September, rainfall is anticipated to be below average. However, as the season advances, rainfall is likely to become above average, particularly during the peak of robust El Niño events between October and December. This shift in rainfall is likely to bring about flooding in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone and along the main rivers situated in the central and eastern parts of the country.

According to WFP, funding shortfalls resulted in around 56,000 refugees and asylum seekers receiving in July 70 percent of their usual food ration. These households are expected to face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, with the assistance, covering just over 70 percent of their monthly caloric requirements, preventing worse food insecurity outcomes. Approximately 1,800 individuals who have returned to their home have been provided with a complete ration, including hot meals during their stay in transit centers and a three-month package for their reintegration. Additionally, humanitarian support has been provided to over 9,000 individuals who have been affected by climatic disruptions in the Imbo Plains and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones through both in-kind and cash transfers, ensuring that the recipients' caloric needs are fully met.