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East Africa

East Africa
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Clashes in Sudan’s breadbasket threaten national food availability

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Food Security Outlook
February - September 2024
Conflict, high prices, and below-average harvests are driving increased humanitarian needs
  • In February, several parts of East Africa continued to face atypically high humanitarian needs, driven largely by conflict, severe flooding, drought, and macroeconomic challenges. Needs remain dire in many parts of Sudan and South Sudan, with a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) identified in some areas. Despite ongoing humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in the worst-affected regions of the eastern Horn. In parts of Ethiopia, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes prevail, a result of the conflict, below average meher crop production in 2023 due to the El Niño-related drought and soaring staple food prices. However, outcomes could become more extreme than currently projected if food aid is not maintained and if levels of social support decline.
  • In Sudan, humanitarian needs are reaching new highs and will steeply escalate following the early start to the lean season in March. This is driven by large cereal deficits, disruptions to the movement of food, and deterioration of household purchasing capacity amid unprecedented displacement and loss of livelihoods. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency outcomes are widespread, with Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes expected amongst households in parts of West Darfur, Khartoum, and among displaced populations. In South Sudan, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected across Greater Bahr el Ghazal and Greater Upper Nile regions, with some households expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Pibor, Duk, Aweil East, and among returnees. This is driven by protracted intercommunal conflict, flooding, a high returnee burden, deteriorating purchasing power, and conflict-related disruptions to trade and food assistance. Further deterioration is expected in the lean season (June-September 2024), with an additional driver being an increased risk of severe flooding due to projected La Niña conditions and increasing violent conflict prior to the December 2024 elections. 
  • In Somalia, despite overall gradual improvement in food and income access since the historic 2020-2023 drought, some drought-affected pastoral areas in the central region and flood-affected riverine areas are projected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through June due to sustained below-average access to food and income, including due to below-average herd sizes and below-average deyr harvests. Many IDPs will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3), Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!), or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through September due to the cumulative impacts of livelihoods and asset losses, limited access to income, and the scale-down of food assistance. In Kenya, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in the pastoral areas as households recover from the historic drought and subsequent flooding in late 2023. However, above-average rainfall forecast for March to May 2024 is expected to enhance livestock production, leading to better access to food and income and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September.
  • In bimodal regions of Uganda, the carry-over stocks from the 2023 harvests and stabilized food prices are expected to support normal food access until May. Moreover, the anticipated average first-season harvests in June/July and availability of income-earning opportunities will likely provide average household access to food through September, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, in Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through May, with the very poor households likely facing worse outcomes. Despite the anticipated increased production due to above-average rainfall, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely be present through September. In Burundi, average Season A and Season B harvests are improving food access through September, as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the Northern Lowlands, Eastern Lowlands, and Eastern Dry Plateaus Livelihood zones through September 2024. 
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Latest Analysis Latest Analysis
View All East Africa Analysis
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Conflict, high prices, and below-average harvests are driving increased humanitarian needs East Africa February - September 2024
Key Message Update Conflict, drought in Ethiopia, and flooding in the lowlands drive elevated needs in the region East Africa January 2024
Key Message Update Widespread flooding in the Horn and conflict in Sudan drive rising needs in November East Africa December 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Widespread extreme seasonal rains cause severe floods but improve agricultural productivity over eastern Horn East Africa November 30, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Atypically hot conditions persist while rainfall deficits deepen in August in the western sector East Africa August 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Rainfall deficits increase over parts of western and northern sector of the region East Africa July 31, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa March 2024
Bulletin des prix Afrique de l'Est Bulletin des Prix Afrique de l'Est Mars 2024
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa February 2024
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Alert Sustained ceasefire and aid corridor urgently needed to prevent severe hunger Sudan May 24, 2023
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Conflict, high prices, and below-average harvests are driving increased humanitarian needs East Africa February - September 2024
Key Message Update Conflict, drought in Ethiopia, and flooding in the lowlands drive elevated needs in the region East Africa January 2024
Key Message Update Widespread flooding in the Horn and conflict in Sudan drive rising needs in November East Africa December 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Widespread extreme seasonal rains cause severe floods but improve agricultural productivity over eastern Horn East Africa November 30, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Atypically hot conditions persist while rainfall deficits deepen in August in the western sector East Africa August 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Rainfall deficits increase over parts of western and northern sector of the region East Africa July 31, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa March 2024
Bulletin des prix Afrique de l'Est Bulletin des Prix Afrique de l'Est Mars 2024
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa February 2024
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Alert Sustained ceasefire and aid corridor urgently needed to prevent severe hunger Sudan May 24, 2023
Food Security Outlook Briefings Food Security Outlook Briefings
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Horn of Africa (October 2023 - May 2024)

Sudan & South Sudan (October 2023 - May 2024)

Food Security Classification Data View all East Africa classification data
East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (February 2024 - September 2024)

Current (February 2024) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (February 2024 - May 2024) and medium term (June 2024 - September 2024) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile February 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification February 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: February 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: February 2024 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2024 - September 2024 (.kml) (KML)
East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (January 2024 - May 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (January 2024) and medium term (February 2024 - May 2024) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile January 2024 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification January 2024 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML)
East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (December 2023 - May 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2023 - January 2024) and medium term (February 2024 - May 2024) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: December 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: December 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: February 2024 - May 2024 (.kml) (KML)
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Banana, Normal Year Beans, Normal Year Cassava, Normal Year Livestock, Normal Year Maize, Normal Year
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