East Africa

East Africa
Food Security Outlook
July 2023
Humanitarian needs remain high amid Sudan crisis as the Gu rainy season concludes in the Horn
  • Humanitarian needs remain high across the East Africa region, driven by conflict, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the lasting impacts of weather shocks including flooding in South Sudan and drought in the Horn. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist, with a risk of more extreme outcomes in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Intense fighting in Sudan since mid-April has disrupted livelihoods and trade and displaced over 3 million people as of early July, driving increased assistance needs both domestically and regionally. Meanwhile, while improved rainfall during the March to May rainfall season is supporting slow recovery from the impacts of the 2020-2023 drought in the eastern Horn, humanitarian needs remain elevated among displaced populations and pastoral populations that became destitute during the drought. 
  • Very high concern exists for severe acute food security outcomes in the northern conflict-affected Tigray region and southern and southeastern drought-affected regions of Ethiopia amid the ongoing pause in humanitarian assistance. This comes even as record assistance needs are anticipated in the coming months. In the regions of concern, widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes with households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are anticipated, with only slight and temporary improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) expected in Tigray alongside the meher harvest beginning in September. In both areas of concern, there is a credible risk of more extreme levels of acute food insecurity if anticipated seasonal improvements in food and income do not materialize as anticipated.
  • Other areas of very high concern in the region include conflict- and flood-affected areas of the Sudans. In South Sudan, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are widespread, the arrival of thousands of returnees and refugees in the north is exacerbating already high humanitarian needs. A credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) exists in South Sudan should a large-scale increase in conflict and/or extensive flooding in the rest of the season cut households off from food for a prolonged period. Meanwhile, in Sudan, the impacts of the ongoing conflict are driving Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in affected urban areas of Khartoum, Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. In parts of West Darfur, extreme violence and targeted ethnic killings are severely interfering with livelihood activities, with households likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 
  • Across much of the eastern Horn and in bimodal Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda, seasonal rains between February and June are supporting seasonal improvements in food security from agricultural labor and crop production. However, millions of households in drought-affected areas of the eastern Horn remain acutely food insecurity due to the lasting impacts of the drought, such as asset depletion (including of livestock) and debt. While livestock production is recovering, household livestock holdings remain significantly below average, especially in central-north Somalia and southern/southeastern Ethiopia. Among the worst drought-affected populations, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist through at least January, despite seasonal improvements during the upcoming October to December rainy season.
  • Humanitarian food assistance is mitigating more severe outcomes in many areas of East Africa and Yemen. However, serious concern remains for the inability of populations to meet their minimum food needs in areas where food assistance has been severely interrupted, such as in Sudan, or paused, such as in Ethiopia. In addition, in parts of Somalia, Yemen, and amongst refugee populations in Uganda, the steady decline in levels of humanitarian food assistance in recent months and years is exacerbating competition for limited available income-earning opportunities amid persistent above-average food prices.
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Food Security
Food Security Outlook Humanitarian needs remain high amid Sudan crisis as the Gu rainy season concludes in the Horn East Africa July 2023
Key Message Update Above-average rainfall brings some relief in the Horn of Africa, but food assistance needs remain high in May East Africa June 2023
Key Message Update Conflict erupts in Sudan, increasing already high humanitarian needs in the Horn of Africa in April East Africa May 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Average to above-average performance recorded for both long rains and start of kiremt rains East Africa June 30, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Above-average seasonal rains significantly improve rangeland, water, and cropping conditions in the region East Africa May 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Widespread above-average seasonal rains trigger severe floods and fatalities in several regions of East Africa East Africa April 30, 2023
Markets & Trade
Bulletin des prix Afrique de l'Est Bulletin des Prix Afrique de l'Est August 2023
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa August 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa July 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Alert Sustained ceasefire and aid corridor urgently needed to prevent severe hunger Sudan May 24, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Food Security
Food Security Outlook Humanitarian needs remain high amid Sudan crisis as the Gu rainy season concludes in the Horn East Africa July 2023
Key Message Update Above-average rainfall brings some relief in the Horn of Africa, but food assistance needs remain high in May East Africa June 2023
Key Message Update Conflict erupts in Sudan, increasing already high humanitarian needs in the Horn of Africa in April East Africa May 2023
Agroclimatology
Seasonal Monitor Average to above-average performance recorded for both long rains and start of kiremt rains East Africa June 30, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Above-average seasonal rains significantly improve rangeland, water, and cropping conditions in the region East Africa May 31, 2023
Seasonal Monitor Widespread above-average seasonal rains trigger severe floods and fatalities in several regions of East Africa East Africa April 30, 2023
Markets & Trade
Bulletin des prix Afrique de l'Est Bulletin des Prix Afrique de l'Est August 2023
Price Bulletin East Africa Price Bulletin East Africa August 2023
Cross Border Trade Report East Africa Cross Border Trade East Africa July 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
Alert The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives Ethiopia May 30, 2023
Alert Sustained ceasefire and aid corridor urgently needed to prevent severe hunger Sudan May 24, 2023
Alert Somalia expected to avert Famine, but the risk of Famine remains credible Somalia February 28, 2023
Food Security Outlook Briefings Food Security Outlook Briefings
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East Africa (February - September 2023)

 

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East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (April 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (April 2023 - May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile April 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification April 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: April 2023 - May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: April 2023 - May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) East Africa Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML)
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