East Africa

August 2020

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Los resultados de la seguridad alimentaria de las personas desplazadas serian al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programadaLa manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Concentración de personas desplazadas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Les résultats de la sécurité alimentaire concernant les personnes déplacées serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programméeLa manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
La manière de classification que FEWS NET utilise est compatible avec l’IPC. Une analyse qui est compatible avec l’IPC suit les principaux protocoles de l’IPC mais ne reflète pas nécessairement le consensus des partenaires nationaux en matière de sécurité alimentaire.
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

IPC 2.0 Phase d'Insécurité Alimentaire Aiguë

Pays de présence:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Urgence
5: Famine
Concentration de personnes déplacées
Pays suivis à distance:
1: Minimale
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pire
Serait probablement pire, au moins une phase, sans
l'assistance humanitaire en cours ou programmée
Pour les pays suivis à distance par FEWS NET, un contour coloré est utilisé pour représenter la classification de l’IPC la plus élevée dans les zones de préoccupation.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência humanitária em vigor ou programad
Os resultados da segurança alimentar para as populações deslocadas provavelmente seriam pelo menos uma fase pior no IPC, na ausência da assistência humanitária atual ou programada.A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
A maneira de classificação que utiliza FEWS NET é compatível com a CIF. A análise compatível com a CIF segue os protocolos fundamentais da CIF mas não necessariamente reflete o consenso dos parceirosnacionais com respeito a segurança alimentar.
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurança Alimentar Aguda Baseado

Países com presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3: Crise
4: Emergência
5: Fome
Concentração de pessoas deslocadas
Países sem presença:
1: Minima
2: Stress
3+: Crise ou pior
Poderia ser pior sem a assistência
humanitária em vigor ou programad
Para os países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza um contorno de cor no mapa CIF para representar a classificação mais alta da CIF nas áreas de preocupação.

July - September 2020

October 2020 - January 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Key Messages
  • The severity of acute food insecurity is highest in Yemen, South Sudan, and Sudan, where several areas are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!). In South Sudan, Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is likely among pockets of households in Jonglei and Upper Nile, who are extremely vulnerable to conflict- or flood-related disruptions to key food and income sources. Protracted conflict and civil insecurity coupled with long-term macroeconomic deterioration remain the primary drivers of food insecurity in these countries; however, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are contributing to further declines in household income and access to food. Additionally, recent floods and desert locusts have caused crop production losses in parts of Sudan and South Sudan. While not the most likely scenario, a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in Yemen and in South Sudan.

  • In the nine countries that FEWS NET monitors in the East Africa region, confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths as of August 31st exceeded 111,500 and 2,900, respectively, led by Ethiopia, Kenya, and Sudan. The economic impacts of COVID-19 are primarily driven by movement restrictions and vary across countries, including reductions in formal and informal business activity, migratory and local labor activities, sales of crops and livestock, remittance inflows, and tourism; minimal to moderate reductions in crop production; a slowdown in regional trade flows; and constrained capacity to deliver in-kind food assistance. These impacts on household income and food sources have increased the scale of the population that is experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, particularly in urban and peri-urban areas and among displaced populations.

  • In Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, significantly above-average staple food prices are making it more difficult for poor households to purchase their minimum food needs. Rising food prices are attributed to multiple factors and vary across each country, but include reductions in export earnings and local currency depreciation that make food imports increasingly expensive; the impacts of below-average crop production on market supply; and the impact of COVID-19 movement restrictions and other preventive measures on regional and domestic supply chains. According to data collected in key reference markets in July, sorghum prices exceeded the five-year average by 150-250 percent across Sudan, 50-240 percent across South Sudan, 85 percent in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and 20-55 percent in southern Somalia. 

  • The October to December (OND) 2020 rains are expected to be below average in the greater Horn of Africa, according to the consensus of ensemble forecast models that include the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. The impact of below-average rainfall on crop and livestock production is likely to drive high food assistance needs through at least early 2021 in Somalia, southern and southeastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya, which depend on the OND rains. Crop losses, reduced demand for agricultural labor, rising staple food prices, declines in milk availability, increased expenditures on water and livestock feed, and increased resource-based conflict are among the negative impacts that will likely lead to an increase in the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Furthermore, there is an elevated likelihood of below-average rainfall in the March to May 2021 season. Two consecutive below-average seasons would likely result in rapidly worsening acute food insecurity.

Livelihoods

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics