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High wheat flour prices and reduced remittances drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tajikistan
  • September 2015
High wheat flour prices and reduced remittances drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Grain harvests, mainly wheat, are near completion in Tajikistan. According to the Ministry of Agriculture as of September 10th, 788,000 metrics tons (MT) of grain was harvested in Tajikistan, 11 percent more than at the same time last year. Similarly, the cotton harvest has started in Khatlon Oblast and will be followed by the Direct Rule Districts (DRD) and Sughd Oblast in the coming weeks. Area cultivated for cotton was similar to last year, and yields are expected to be similar to last year as well.

    • Wheat flour prices were stable in Tajikistan, but remained 33 percent above the five-year average. Wheat flour prices have not yet decreased with harvests as is typical, mainly due to the continued depreciation of the Tajikistan somoni (TJS) against international currencies. With domestic production greater than last year and expected average production in Kazakhstan, the main supplier of wheat imports for Tajikistan, the wheat flour price may ease in the coming months if the somoni (TJS) stabilizes. Prices for potato, another staple food, increased by six percent between July and August, improving income for local producers. Potato prices are similar to the five-year average.

    • According to the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of Population, 430,000 labor migrants have traveled outside the country between January and August 2015, reflecting a nine percent reduction compared to the same time last year. The decline in migration reflects stricter regulations for entrance to the Russian Federation and activities of labor migrants from foreign countries. The Central Bank of Russia has reported that the amount of money remitted to Tajikistan during January to June 2015 decreased by 58 percent as compared to the same period last year. However, the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) reported that national remittances have declined by 32 percent as compared to last year. 

       

      For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for August 2015.

    Figures

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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