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Near-average cereal harvest concluded in many areas

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tajikistan
  • September 2014
Near-average cereal harvest concluded in many areas

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook Through December 2014
  • Key Messages
    • As of September 8, more than 711,000 metric tons (MT) of cereals had been harvested. The Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan expects a total 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) of cereals this year, slightly less than last year but similar to 2012.

    • Most areas will be able to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between now and December (Figure 1) due to normal flow of food and income sources, including remittances.

    FEWS NET has not observed and does not anticipate any anomalies that would have a significant impact on acute food security projected for September to December 2014.


    Projected Outlook Through December 2014

    Harvesting of winter crops, mainly wheat and barley, was completed, but it continues in some highland areas. The harvesting of spring crops, mainly maize and rice, is well under way and expected to continue until the end of September. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of early September more than 711,000 metric tons (MT) of cereals were harvest in Tajikistan, which is 27,000 MT less than the same time last year.

    The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 2014 cereal production will be about 1.2 million MT, 13 percent lower than last year and similar to 2012. Similarly, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated 2014 wheat production to be five percent less than last year. The slight decrease is likely the result of slightly lower yields in a few irrigated areas as well as a small reduction in area planted.

    Cotton production, a key cash crop, progressed normally, and the harvest has started in Khatlon Province and the Direct Rule Districts (DRD). Many households are involved in picking cotton right now, which is an important source of income.

    In Kazakhstan, the main supplier of wheat flour to Tajikistan, the harvest is currently underway. FAO estimates the wheat harvest to be 13.6 MMT, three percent less than 2013. This is attributed to some minor reduction in area planted and lower yields in Kostanay Province, one of the main wheat-producing areas. Total exports from Kazakhstan are likely to be less than last year and below average, but exports to Tajikistan should continue without disruptions.

    Wheat flour prices have remained stable since June and are similar to last year’s prices. It is expected that wheat prices will decrease or remain stable in the post-harvest period between now and December. However, they may increase early next year due to import prices, the seasonal trend, and other factors. Prices of potatoes, another staple food, have declined continuously since the harvest started in July, but unlike wheat flour prices, they are higher than last year.

    According to the Central Bank of Russia, nearly 1,700 million U.S. dollars (USD) were remitted from Russia to Tajikistan from January to June 2014, which is very similar to last year. Remittances are the main source of income for many households. However, sanctions on Russia, leading to reduced economic activity could affect households in Tajikistan who depend on remittances. These effects would most likely be most pronounced during the next international labor migration peak from April to November 2015.

    With near-average own production and income from cash crops such as cotton, vegetables, and fruit, as well as remittance flows during the coming months, a majority of households will have normal access to food and will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December.

    Figures Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal calendar in a typical year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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