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Near-average harvests support normal preparations for the winter and lean season

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tajikistan
  • October 2014
Near-average harvests support normal preparations for the winter and lean season

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through March 2015
  • Key Messages
    • Most households will have average food stocks through normal food and income sources for the coming winter and lean season, and are expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from October 2014 through March 2015.

    • The winter and spring harvests are mostly complete, and households are currently earning income from land preparation and planting of winter crops for 2015 and other seasonally  normal sources of income like the end of seasonal remittances.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    FEWS NET has not observed and does not anticipate any anomalies that would have a significant impact on acute food security projected for October 2014 to March 2015.

     


    Projected Outlook through March 2015

    Planting of 2015 winter crops such as wheat and barley started in mid-August and will continue until mid-November. Both rainfall and temperatures between August and mid-October allowed the harvest of the spring (second) crops, planting of winter crops,  and germination of winter crops. During October much of Tajikistan received widespread rain with heavy precipitation in Sughd Oblast and the Direct Rule Districts (DRD). Further light-to-moderate precipitation is expected to continue over the near term. Average precipitation is forecast for the October to May wet season in Tajikistan (Figure 2).

    Harvesting of 2014 winter and most spring crops, mainly wheat, barley, and maize was mostly completed by the end of September. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates wheat production at 745,000 metric tons (MT), four percent lower than last year’s near-average production. According to FAO, the decrease reflects lower yields due to inadequate irrigation water access during parts of the growing season and a small contraction in area planted. Cereals production is forecast at 1.1 million metric tons (MMT), three percent lower than last year’s above-average level and similar to the five-year average. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Tajikistan, over 309,700 hectares of land were cultivated with cereal crops in 2013/14, with wheat being sown on over 214,800 hectares.

    The cotton harvest is underway in cotton growing districts of Tajikistan.  As of October 22, 286,000 MT of seed cotton had been produced, comprising more than 70 percent of the total expected harvest of 408,000 MT, three percent higher than last year.  However, the Agency on Statistics Tajikistan reported a significant decline in cotton fiber exports this year, with exports of 43,800 MT being registered from January to September 2014, 41 percent lower than during that period in 2013.

    In Kazakhstan, the main exporter of wheat grain and flour to Tajikistan, wheat flour prices were stable in October after decreasing eight percent in September. Prices remain 12 percent lower than in October 2013. It is expected that the price of Kazakhstani wheat grain and flour might increase as production estimates indicate a slightly below-average wheat harvest. Wheat flour prices have not decreased in Tajikistan as expected with the arrival of wheat harvest into the local markets. It is assumed that slightly lower wheat production, higher fuel costs, and inflation has prevented the price from declining. September potato prices have declined from the peak of May this year, but the average price remains 12 percent higher than September 2013.

    Most households will have average food stocks through normal food and income sources for the coming winter and lean season and are expected to be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from October 2014 through March 2015.

    Figures National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) precipitation anomaly forecast  in millimeters (mm) per day for February to April 2015 u

    Figure 1

    National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) precipitation anomaly forecast in millimeters (mm) per day for February to April 2015 using October 1 to 8, 2014 initial conditions with skill mask

    Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Cente…

    Figure 1

    Source:

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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