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Average wheat flour prices remain stable, but 23 percent above the five-year average

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Tajikistan
  • November 2015
Average wheat flour prices remain stable, but 23 percent above the five-year average

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Grain harvests have concluded throughout the country, and harvests of second crops, primarily cotton, are underway. As of November 20th, 322,000 metric tons (MT) of raw cotton has been harvested in Khatlon, Sughd, and the Direct Rule Districts (DRD), representing nearly 81 percent of the expected production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 56,000 people are employed in the cotton harvest, and are currently collecting more than 1,100 MT of raw cotton per day.

    • The potato harvest is near completion, with 475,000 MT harvested through November 4th, a 17 percent increase compared to the same time last year. The increase is due to greater area planted as well as a slight increase in yields. Potato prices remain stable and near the five-year average, after falling significantly in early 2015. 

    • Wheat flour prices were stable between September and October, but remained well above the five-year average. Although recent domestic harvests have contributed to improved local market supplies, they have not been sufficient to offset the effects of the sharp depreciation of the Tajikistan Somoni (TJS) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) and other currencies. Wheat flour prices remain 17 percent higher than their respective 2014 levels, and 23 percent above the five-year average. Price trends will depend largely on the extent to which lower regional export prices are offset by the declining value of the TJS.

    • The wet season has begun and is progressing normally, with 25 to 50 mm of precipitation across the country between October 23rd and November 21st. The precipitation facilitated normal planting of winter crops, mainly wheat. Due to the ongoing El Niño, above-average precipitation is expected in Tajikistan during the remainder of the October 2015 to May 2016 wet season, and temperatures are expected to be above-average to average. These conditions are likely to support normal crop development, but could increase the risk of flooding during spring 2016.

    • Many poor households who are highly dependent on food purchased with remittances from abroad are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the coming winter and lean season, as wheat flour prices remain above average and remittances have declined due to labor migration restrictions and reduced labor demand in the Russian Federation, as well as depreciation of the Russian Rouble (RUB).

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    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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