Poor net food purchasing households and those affected by decreased remittances are Stressed

• Prices for basic food commodities including wheat flour and potatoes are significantly higher than last year and the average, but have remained stable for several months. Poor net food purchasing households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

• Current precipitation improved snow cover and snow water equivalent in most of Tajikistan, ensuring sufficient availability of irrigation water for spring crops and the second crops.

• The value of remittances received decreased in 2014 and is expected to decrease further in the current year. Households dependent on remittances and who have not found alternative labor opportunities are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.

According to the Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) of the World Food Program (WFP) conducted in December 2014 in Tajikistan, the total wheat harvest decreased by eight percent in 2014 as compared to 2013. The largest decrease was reported in Sughd Oblast, where wheat production decreased by 11 percent from the previous year. The production of potatoes, another major staple food, declined by 23 percent compared to 2013. However, estimates indicate that 2013 production was above-average. The 2014 fruit and vegetable harvests performed well in general, with a four percent increase reported. Due to lower agricultural production, mainly of wheat and potatoes, reports indicate that nearly three-fourths of households have lower food stocks for the ongoing lean season as compared to the same time two years ago, when Tajikistan had produced a good harvest.

 In Kazakhstan, the main source of wheat grain and flour imports for Tajikistan, wheat production was less than last year and 11 percent below the five-year average. As a result, wheat grain export prices were higher than last year and 14 percent above-average. However, these prices have remained stable since November 2014. In Tajikistan, though wheat flour prices were generally stable across major markets, prices were significantly higher than last year and the average in all markets. In some markets, including Dushanbe, prices were at historical highs, with data since 2006. The main reasons behind the price increases are lower domestic wheat production and higher prices of imports from Kazakhstan. Potato prices started to decline again in major markets, after remaining stable at an elevated level since the price increased in November 2014. However, prices are 21 percent higher than the same time last year and 49 percent higher than average, with the greatest increase reported in Sughd Oblast, where it is 62 percent higher than the average (see figure). The Tajikistani somoni (TJS) has depreciated against the U.S. dollar (USD) since November 2014, and was 12 percent lower than at the same time last year. It is believed that the depreciation of the somoni against international currencies has contributed to the increase in prices for some food commodities, particularly imports. The price of the minimum food basket increased by 14 percent.

According to data from the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), the total number of international labor migrants was 11 percent lower than last year. The total value of remittances sent to Tajikistan in 2014 was USD 3.9 billion, eight percent less than the figure for 2013. The decrease in the level of remittances is attributed to the economic slowdown in the Russian Federation, denial of entry for some Tajikistani laborers, and the depreciation of the Russian ruble (RUB) against the somoni (TJS) since late August 2014, as nearly 80 percent of all money remitted to Tajikistan during 2014 was in rubles. Moreover, the data from FSMS indicates that the percentage of households with at least one member sending remittances during the previous three months dropped from 45 percent in November 2012 to 36 percent in December 2014. Additionally, 51 percent of households received fewer remittances than the previous year. Due to reduced work opportunities in the Russian Federation for labor migrants, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a further 30 percent decline in the value of remittances in 2015 compared to 2014, as measured in USD. More laborers are expected to remain in Tajikistan rather than migrating to the Russian Federation, but will face limited domestic labor opportunities.

During the past month, most areas in Tajikistan received intense precipitation, resulting in increased snow cover in the highlands and cumulative precipitation in most areas. Cumulative precipitation since the start of the current wet season in October is higher than last season across the country and near to the long-term average in many areas (data from 2002-2011), with the exception of some parts of Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). Snow cover extent is also near to normal in most areas, and snow water equivalent is significantly better than last year and higher than normal in some basins (see figure). At the same time, the risk of flooding and avalanches is expected to increase in the coming weeks in the foothills. The average to above-average precipitation forecast for the coming months and improved water availability from the current precipitation indicate that planting of spring crops will take place normally and that water availability for second crops will be sufficient.  

Urban households and net purchasers of wheat flour in rural areas will face constraints on purchasing power due to elevated prices of wheat and wheat flour in markets. However, poor households who face income constraints and who have limited access to food sources are classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from now until June 2015. Similarly, households relying on remittances as a primary source of income and food and who may be affected by decreased work opportunities in the Russian Federation and the low value of remittances are also expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from March to June 2015.