Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Key Messages

• Remittances to Tajikistan continue to decline due to fewer labor opportunities and labor migration restrictions in the Russian Federation, as well as the depreciation of both the Russian ruble and Tajikistani somoni against the US dollar. Between January and September 2015, remittance levels were 65 percent lower than levels during the same time period in 2014. Many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances to purchase food are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least the January to March lean season.  

• The Tajikistani somoni continues to depreciate against major international currencies. As of mid-January, the value of the somoni against the US dollar was 26 percent lower than at this time last year. The lower value of the currency has both reduced household real income and increased the price of imported food items such as wheat flour, ultimately reducing the purchasing capacity of many households. 

• Average precipitation and above-average temperatures are predicted for the ongoing wet season through May 2016 and are expected to facilitate normal development of winter and spring crops, including wheat and cotton. As a result of the likely average snow accumulation, the risk of flooding during the spring is expected to be average.