Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook

Regional wheat supplies in Central Asia are near the five year average and are expected to remain so over the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

The structurally deficit countries of Afghanistan and Tajikistan are expected to meet their domestic wheat requirements through intra-regional trade with Pakistan and Kazakhstan. 

In Tajikistan, wheat prices have reached record high levels (26 percent higher than average) and are projected to remain at the current high levels. The Tajik currency (Somoni) has depreciated by 27 percent against the USD over the past year due to reduced remittance inflows. Tajikistan is particularly reliant on food imports, thus the depreciation of the Somoni has been driving up food prices. 

Wheat prices in Afghanistan and Pakistan are near average and are projected to be stable, while wheat prices in Kazakhstan are lower than average and are projected to remain lower than average.