Supply and Market Outlook

Central Asia Wheat Supply and Market Outlook

January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Wheat production in Central Asia for the 2021/22 marketing year (MY) was affected by below-average cumulative precipitation (Figure 1). Regional harvests are expected to reach 67 million metric tons (MMT), six percent below the previous year and three percent below the recent five-year average (Figure 2). Regional opening stocks are above 2020/21 levels, but thirteen percent below average. As a result, the region’s aggregate net supply is expected to remain positive but will be 11 percent below 2020/21 levels and 43 percent below average.

  • Given regional supply trends, recent political transitions, and global price trends, trade flow patterns to date in 2021 have differed from previous years. Year-to-date exports from Kazakhstan have declined; amounts of exported and re-exported wheat grain and flour from Uzbekistan have expanded; and Pakistan has switched from a structurally surplus to a structurally deficit posture. Afghanistan’s aggregate imports through July were like past years while imports in August and September were below average. These atypical trade flows are expected to persist in 2022. Imports by Afghanistan (both the costs and volumes) will depend on the country’s exchange rate, the extent to which financial resources, which are largely USD-based, are available to support imports from the region, and the level of risk traders working with and in Afghanistan are willing to take on.

  • Markets in Central Asia remain directly and indirectly integrated with international markets, on which wheat prices have been elevated since 2020. Prices in Central Asia are currently over 20 percent higher than 2020 levels and approximately 40 percent above average. Prices are projected to remain above average throughout the region. Elevated prices in Kazakhstan will mirror global reference market trends and will be transmitted to deficit countries in the region. Prices in Afghanistan will be affected by the strength of the AFN, import levels, and household purchasing power which is currently heavily constrained.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics