Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity expected in Afghanistan and Tajikistan

Although 2015 agricultural production was generally favorable in Afghanistan, several factors are leading to food consumption gaps for affected households as the annual lean season begins, including reduced non-agricultural employment opportunities and wages, as well as the displacement of more than 300,000 people in 2015 due to conflict. These factors have prevented many poor and displaced households from stocking normally for the winter and lean season. Although there are households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many parts of the country, areas of greatest concern include northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor, Ghor, Helmand, Kunduz, and Nangarhar Provinces.

Remittances to Tajikistan continue to decline due to fewer labor opportunities and labor migration restrictions in the Russian Federation, as well as the depreciation of both the Russian ruble and Tajikistani somoni against the US dollar. Between January and September 2015, remittance levels were 65 percent lower than levels during the same time period in 2014. Many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances to purchase food are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least the January to March lean season.