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Wheat and wheat flour prices likely to remain above-average through the winter and lean season

  • Key Message Update
  • Middle East and Asia
  • December 2015
Wheat and wheat flour prices likely to remain above-average through the winter and lean season

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Since the start of the wet season in October, rainfall and snowfall amounts have been above average. With continued above-average precipitation expected during the ongoing El Niño, there is an increasing likelihood of another average to above-average grain harvest in 2016, further increasing households and market supplies and helping keep staple food prices mostly stable.

    • With staple food prices remaining well above average, fewer labor opportunities, especially in construction, since the withdrawal of NATO in 2014, and continued conflict, more people are likely to be acutely food insecure in Afghanistan this coming January to April lean season than in most recent years. However, the number will be similar in scope to last year.

    • Lower remittances from the Russian Federation, higher prices for imported food, particularly wheat flour, and lower prices for cotton exports, are likely to cause lower incomes and higher staple food prices, placing many households in Tajikistan in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the upcoming January to March lean season.

    • In Kazakhstan, the wheat harvest is almost complete, and recent estimates are that 14 million metric tons (MTs) were harvested, similar to the five-year average but ten percent more than last year.

       

      For more detailed analysis, see the Tajikistan Remote Monitoring Update for December 2015 and/or the Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update for December 2015.

    Figures

    Figure 1

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    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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