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Most areas in Afghanistan and Tajikistan are expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least March, as the majority of households have been able to stock adequate food for the winter and lean season. Staple food prices remained stable in November, but were above-average in many places. Some households displaced or otherwise affected by conflict in Afghanistan and those affected by localized natural disasters in both countries will continue to require assistance.
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According to the Central Bank of Russia, the flow of remittances to Tajikistan from January to September 2014 was similar to 2013. However, the Russian rouble (RUB) depreciated 33 percent against the Tajikistani somoni (TJS) from August to December, decreasing the purchasing power of those remittances.
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In Afghanistan, Badghis Province is expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least March, after below-average harvests of wheat and other crops in 2014. Some households that have been unable to stock adequate food for the winter and lean season may enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January to March 2015, as some coping strategies become unavailable and market access is reduced by the winter.
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In Afghanistan, approximately 5,830 new arrivals were registered in Gulan Camp in Khost Province during December. These people were displaced by the renewed fighting in North Waziristan Agency in Pakistan. The total estimated number of Pakistani refugees in need of assistance in Khost and Paktika Provinces is 280,178 individuals. The influx of refugees has also strained the resources of the host communities. Refugees and hosting households are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through at least March but only with the expected continued presence of humanitarian assistance.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.