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Above-average harvests allow poor households to adequately stock for the winter

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Middle East and Asia
  • November 2013
Above-average harvests allow poor households to adequately stock for the winter

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Prices of wheat grain and flour have been stable or declining gradually following seasonal patterns due to the availability of adequate supplies from local harvests and imports from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, which serves as the primary source of imported wheat and wheat flour, expects to have ample wheat supply to export to neighboring Central Asian countries.
    • In Afghanistan, food security outcomes from October to March 2014 are anticipated to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most parts of the country as a result of normal to above normal first and second harvests. However, the main wheat harvest this year in the West-Central Highlands Agropastoral Livelihood Zone was well below average, causing a current and potential food consumption gap for poor households. External assistance is likely to offset food shortages from October to March 2014, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.
    • Although the majority of households in Herat Province of Afghanistan are able to employ basic survival and protection strategies to meet needs, newly displaced IDPs (within the last 6 months) have difficulty meeting their basic survival needs. Income-earning opportunities are especially limited during wintertime as labor demand decreases to a minimum and expenses reach their seasonal peak. These IDPs could see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes from October 2013 to March 2014 if additional external assistance is not provided.
    • In Tajikistan, this year’s above-normal national supply of wheat (28.6 percent more than in 2012) is vital for rural household’s food consumption and winter stocking for poor households throughout the country. A forecast of normal precipitation is expected for the winter season; therefore, no effects for the winter harvest are anticipated. Households are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity for the scenario period.
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    Figure 1

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    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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