Food Security Outlook Update

Above-average harvests allow poor households to adequately stock for the winter

November 2013
2013-Q4-0-0-central-asia-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Prices of wheat grain and flour have been stable or declining gradually following seasonal patterns due to the availability of adequate supplies from local harvests and imports from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, which serves as the primary source of imported wheat and wheat flour, expects to have ample wheat supply to export to neighboring Central Asian countries.

  • In Afghanistan, food security outcomes from October to March 2014 are anticipated to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most parts of the country as a result of normal to above normal first and second harvests. However, the main wheat harvest this year in the West-Central Highlands Agropastoral Livelihood Zone was well below average, causing a current and potential food consumption gap for poor households. External assistance is likely to offset food shortages from October to March 2014, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.

  • Although the majority of households in Herat Province of Afghanistan are able to employ basic survival and protection strategies to meet needs, newly displaced IDPs (within the last 6 months) have difficulty meeting their basic survival needs. Income-earning opportunities are especially limited during wintertime as labor demand decreases to a minimum and expenses reach their seasonal peak. These IDPs could see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes from October 2013 to March 2014 if additional external assistance is not provided.

  • In Tajikistan, this year’s above-normal national supply of wheat (28.6 percent more than in 2012) is vital for rural household’s food consumption and winter stocking for poor households throughout the country. A forecast of normal precipitation is expected for the winter season; therefore, no effects for the winter harvest are anticipated. Households are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity for the scenario period.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics