Key Message Update

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity expected in Afghanistan and Tajikistan

January 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Although 2015 agricultural production was generally favorable in Afghanistan, several factors are leading to food consumption gaps for affected households as the annual lean season begins, including reduced non-agricultural employment opportunities and wages, as well as the displacement of more than 300,000 people in 2015 due to conflict. These factors have prevented many poor and displaced households from stocking normally for the winter and lean season. Although there are households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in many parts of the country, areas of greatest concern include northern Badakhshan and the Wakhan Corridor, Ghor, Helmand, Kunduz, and Nangarhar Provinces.

  • Remittances to Tajikistan continue to decline due to fewer labor opportunities and labor migration restrictions in the Russian Federation, as well as the depreciation of both the Russian ruble and Tajikistani somoni against the US dollar. Between January and September 2015, remittance levels were 65 percent lower than levels during the same time period in 2014. Many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances to purchase food are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least the January to March lean season. ¬†

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics