Key Message Update

Wheat and wheat flour prices likely to remain above-average through the winter and lean season

December 2015
2015-Q4-12-27-central-asia-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Since the start of the wet season in October, rainfall and snowfall amounts have been above average. With continued above-average precipitation expected during the ongoing El Niño, there is an increasing likelihood of another average to above-average grain harvest in 2016, further increasing households and market supplies and helping keep staple food prices mostly stable.

  • With staple food prices remaining well above average, fewer labor opportunities, especially in construction, since the withdrawal of NATO in 2014, and continued conflict, more people are likely to be acutely food insecure in Afghanistan this coming January to April lean season than in most recent years. However, the number will be similar in scope to last year.

  • Lower remittances from the Russian Federation, higher prices for imported food, particularly wheat flour, and lower prices for cotton exports, are likely to cause lower incomes and higher staple food prices, placing many households in Tajikistan in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the upcoming January to March lean season.

  • In Kazakhstan, the wheat harvest is almost complete, and recent estimates are that 14 million metric tons (MTs) were harvested, similar to the five-year average but ten percent more than last year.

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Tajikistan Remote Monitoring Update for December 2015 and/or the Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update for December 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics