Dependency on income from labor migration to Iran has decreased significantly over the past decade

In Bamyan and the northern districts of Wardak Province, dependency on income from labor migration to Iran has decreased significantly over the past ten years. This gradual trend has accelerated during the last three years. The reduction in the number of labor migrants going to Iran is primarily a result of increased domestic employment opportunities since 2001, Iran’s restrictions on labor in-migration, and the deteriorating economy of Iran.

A noticeable proportion of the population of Bamyan and the northern districts of Wardak Province have permanently moved to urban areas including Kabul, Hirat, and Mazar. The remaining population thus has increased access to natural resources such as arable land, pasture, and water from irrigation. 

Given the better than normal production in 2012 which will contribute more than six months’ food supply for households, normal income from cash crops sales such as for potatoes, the 45 percent increase in sheep and goats prices compared to last year, food security outcomes for Bamyan and northern districts of Wardak province will be at the None or Minimal food insecurity phase (IPC Phase 1) over the coming six months.

While not expected in the most likely scenario, if Iran were to forcibly repatriate Afghan labor migrants, the impact on once-dependent provinces such as Bamyan and the northern districts of Wardak food security would impact some households, but it would not likely affect entire villages or have particularly largescale impacts.

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